This is the prediction of the majority of private-sector economists in a survey carried out by the Wall Street Journal. According to 59%, the economic expansion that began after the global downturn in 2008 will end in 2020. Another 22% believe this will happen in 2021.
According to Scott Anderson, chief economist at Bank of the West, the present economic expansion is becoming quite extensive by historical standards, and a variety of late-cycle signs are to be observed.
Around two-thirds of survey respondents indicated the economy was “overheating” in connection with Federal Reserve interest rates tightening.
We do recommend taking all this with a pinch of salt, because economic downturns and peaks are not very easy to predict. An economic downturn is quite likely, as four out of every five economists surveyed by the WSJ believed economic issues will have “hit the fan” in three years.
The current economic “boom” is the second-biggest in history. It is still behind the IT bubble of 1990, which almost lasted a decade. That expansion ultimately led to low employment rates. A lot of people ended up earning less money than before the downturn of 2008, as well as losing retirement savings and health insurance. This might mean that poor, working-class people will be those most heavily impacted in the aftermath of another economic crisis.
Combined with the elimination of social safety nets across many US states, this paints a pretty bleak picture of the future, unless you’ve saved something up for a rainy day.