While the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee is yet to lower its gross domestic product estimate for late 2023 and early 2024, official data has indicated a rise in the probability of an impending recession.

“GDP growth has been weaker, the unemployment rate is higher and pay growth is finally easing across all gauges,” Bloomberg Economics observed. “Financial markets have responded to the recent flow of news by pricing in a smaller-than-50% chance that interest rates reach 5.5%, having seen a peak expectation of over 6% in the summer.”

The post Bank of England Expected to Forecast Recession Risk Ahead of General Election appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

“I don’t see any signs that the economy is at risk of a downturn,” Yellen explained, taking note of the strong labor market as well as cooling inflation. “There’s absolutely no reason for a shutdown,” she advised, adding that “Creating a situation that could cause a loss of momentum is something we don’t need as a risk at this point.”

Although a strong labor market is seldom conducive to suppressing inflation, Yellen explained that because it is cooling, the labor market is providing room for inflation to decline to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

The post U.S. Treasury Secretary Confirms That U.S. Economy is Not Facing Downturn appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

In Europe, the pan-European Stoxx 600 edged higher by 0.1%, putting the index on track to record its third consecutive daily rise. The index was largely boosted by auto stocks, which rose by 1.5%.

Renault SA rose after increasing its full-year earnings guidance due to strong sales for its new models. Swedish retailer Hennes & Mauritz AB also climbed after reporting a smaller-than-expected decline in earnings.

Nasdaq futures gained 0.2% early Wednesday. The tech-heavy index was led by chipmaker Micron Technology Inc., which advanced by more than 3% in pre-market trading after delivering an upbeat sales forecast.

S&P 500 futures rose incrementally by 0.1%, while those on the Dow Jones Industrial Average remained little changed. Outside of the U.S. and Europe, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined 0.3% while the MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell by 0.5%.

The post Stocks Rise as Strong Earnings Report Supresses Recession Concerns appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

U.S. home sales rose in May, as did April home prices. May’s retail sales also beat consensus estimates, while the jobs report for the same month beat expectations, with 339,000 new jobs being added to the U.S. economy. This influx of positive data has also led to a rise in air travel, with more U.S. travelers going on vacation than in 2019 in seven of the last 10 days.

Consumers are becoming more optimistic regarding the likelihood of an incoming U.S. recession. 69.3% of consumers in June said a recession in the next 12 months is “somewhat” or “very likely,” compared to 72.2% in May.

Jefferies US economist Thomas Simons wrote in a note to investors that, “consumer attitudes remain resilient.” He explained that while there are still economic concerns plaguing the U.S., consumers are becoming less frightened of the prospect of an impending recession.

The post Strong Economic Data Extinguishes Recession Fears appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

Eurozone gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 0.1% compared to the previous quarter, while it rose by 1.0% compared to the same time the previous year. The revision is primarily a result of a second estimate released by Germany’s statistics office showing that the country went into recession in early 2023. The revision also cut the euro zone’s fourth-quarter GDP growth to -0.1%.

In addition to Germany, it was also found that the GDP declined on a quarter-on-quarter basis in Greece, Ireland, Lithuania, Malta, and the Netherlands.

According to Eurostat, quarterly GDP was most heavily impacted by increased household spending, which shredded 0.1 percentage points, public expenditure, which caused a 0.3 percentage point hit, and inventory changes, dragging down GDP by 0.4 percentage points.

The post Euro Zone in Recession Following Downward Revision of Growth appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

The investment giant’s decision to lower its recession odds is driven by the cooldown in market concerns as the banking sector continues to stabilize following March’s crisis which saw the start of the collapse of a slew of U.S. banks.

Also considered was the nation’s GDP growth, with a forecast of 1.8% for 2023. “We have become more confident in our baseline estimate that the banking stress will subtract only a modest 0.4 percentage points from real GDP growth this year,” Jan Hatzius, Goldman’s chief economist stated in anote. “Regional bank stock prices have stabilized, deposit outflows have slowed, lending volumes have held up, and lending surveys point to only limited tightening ahead.”

The post Goldman Reduces U.S. Recession Probability Following Debt Deal appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

U.S. GDP growth was 1.3% in the first quarter of 2023, meaning that U.S. economic growth is yet to collapse since the coronavirus pandemic. Several major U.S. corporations reported strong Q1 earnings, with specialty clothing retailers Abercrombie & Fitch and Urban Outfitters reporting significant sales rises while Nvidia and Palo Alto Networks reported upbeat earnings forecasts, signaling that business-to-business sales are also proving strong.

Although a group of economists from Citi stated on Thursday that further rate hikes from the Federal Reserve may be needed in order to cool inflation, Fed Chair Jerome Powell revealed that there is a possibility that the central bank may pause its rate hikes, stating that he prefers to keep his options open ahead of the next policy meeting.

Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins expressed hope that rate hikes could be tamed, explaining: “While inflation is still too high, there are some promising signs of moderation. I believe we may be at, or near, the point where monetary policy can pause raising interest rates.”

The post GDP, Jobs Data Subside Recession Fears appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

I’m less enamored with the story that credit conditions will tighten appreciably enough to send the U.S. economy into recession,” Bullard stated during a call with reporters. “You’re only talking about a portion of the total amount of intermediation that’s going on. It’s not big enough by itself to send the U.S. economy into recession. Other things would have to happen.”

In Bullard’s view, with only 20% of bank deposits leaving the system, there doesn’t seem to be enough of a change to affect lending. Bullard believes that lending will persist so long as banks maintain enough liquidity and capital to extend loans.

While some have suggested that the Federal Reserve lower its interest rate on its reverse repo facility to encourage money market funds to lend back to banks, Bullard stated that the Federal Reserve does not currently have plans to change that.

The post Bank Failures Unlikely to Be Cause of Recession—Fed Official appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

The two-year US government-bond yield fell for a fifth consecutive session, shredding 6 basis points to 3.72%, while the 10-year note extended its decline to seven straight days, falling 3 basis points to 3.28%.

Asian stocks also declined on Thursday, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index declining by 0.7%. Indian shares provided a glimpse of optimism in Asia, with the Nifty 50 advancing after India’s central bank decided to pause its interest rate hikes.

European stocks rose, Stoxx Europe 600 gaining 0.4% during European morning trading. Germany’s 10-year yield remained little changed at 2.17%, while Britain’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 3.41%. With regard to individual shares, Shell surged after figures indicated that the company’s gas-trading business remained strong despite a price decrease.

The post Asian Stocks and Treasury Yields Extend Losses as Recession Worries Resurface appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

Data compiled by Bloomberg indicated that companies have raised just $19.7 billion via initial public offerings to date in 2023. This is a 70% drop from the same period last year and the lowest comparable amount since 2019.

In the United States, IPOs have raised just $3.2 billion so far this year; the steepest fall out of the global IPOs that were assessed in the Bloomberg report. While high inflation and the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate policy deterred investors last year, uncertainty in the banking sector has added to investors’ concerns.

Udhay Furtado, co-head of ECM, Asia Pacific at Citigroup Inc., acknowledged the effect that the Federal Reserve’s consistently tight monetary policy has had on investors’ eagerness to invest. “Rates is the number one issue, and there is a clear debate around how long the tightening lasts or changes direction and at what speed,” Furtado explained.

The post Global IPO Market Disrupted By Banking Instability appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

While the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee is yet to lower its gross domestic product estimate for late 2023 and early 2024, official data has indicated a rise in the probability of an impending recession.

“GDP growth has been weaker, the unemployment rate is higher and pay growth is finally easing across all gauges,” Bloomberg Economics observed. “Financial markets have responded to the recent flow of news by pricing in a smaller-than-50% chance that interest rates reach 5.5%, having seen a peak expectation of over 6% in the summer.”

The post Bank of England Expected to Forecast Recession Risk Ahead of General Election appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

“I don’t see any signs that the economy is at risk of a downturn,” Yellen explained, taking note of the strong labor market as well as cooling inflation. “There’s absolutely no reason for a shutdown,” she advised, adding that “Creating a situation that could cause a loss of momentum is something we don’t need as a risk at this point.”

Although a strong labor market is seldom conducive to suppressing inflation, Yellen explained that because it is cooling, the labor market is providing room for inflation to decline to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

The post U.S. Treasury Secretary Confirms That U.S. Economy is Not Facing Downturn appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

In Europe, the pan-European Stoxx 600 edged higher by 0.1%, putting the index on track to record its third consecutive daily rise. The index was largely boosted by auto stocks, which rose by 1.5%.

Renault SA rose after increasing its full-year earnings guidance due to strong sales for its new models. Swedish retailer Hennes & Mauritz AB also climbed after reporting a smaller-than-expected decline in earnings.

Nasdaq futures gained 0.2% early Wednesday. The tech-heavy index was led by chipmaker Micron Technology Inc., which advanced by more than 3% in pre-market trading after delivering an upbeat sales forecast.

S&P 500 futures rose incrementally by 0.1%, while those on the Dow Jones Industrial Average remained little changed. Outside of the U.S. and Europe, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined 0.3% while the MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell by 0.5%.

The post Stocks Rise as Strong Earnings Report Supresses Recession Concerns appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

U.S. home sales rose in May, as did April home prices. May’s retail sales also beat consensus estimates, while the jobs report for the same month beat expectations, with 339,000 new jobs being added to the U.S. economy. This influx of positive data has also led to a rise in air travel, with more U.S. travelers going on vacation than in 2019 in seven of the last 10 days.

Consumers are becoming more optimistic regarding the likelihood of an incoming U.S. recession. 69.3% of consumers in June said a recession in the next 12 months is “somewhat” or “very likely,” compared to 72.2% in May.

Jefferies US economist Thomas Simons wrote in a note to investors that, “consumer attitudes remain resilient.” He explained that while there are still economic concerns plaguing the U.S., consumers are becoming less frightened of the prospect of an impending recession.

The post Strong Economic Data Extinguishes Recession Fears appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

Eurozone gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 0.1% compared to the previous quarter, while it rose by 1.0% compared to the same time the previous year. The revision is primarily a result of a second estimate released by Germany’s statistics office showing that the country went into recession in early 2023. The revision also cut the euro zone’s fourth-quarter GDP growth to -0.1%.

In addition to Germany, it was also found that the GDP declined on a quarter-on-quarter basis in Greece, Ireland, Lithuania, Malta, and the Netherlands.

According to Eurostat, quarterly GDP was most heavily impacted by increased household spending, which shredded 0.1 percentage points, public expenditure, which caused a 0.3 percentage point hit, and inventory changes, dragging down GDP by 0.4 percentage points.

The post Euro Zone in Recession Following Downward Revision of Growth appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

The investment giant’s decision to lower its recession odds is driven by the cooldown in market concerns as the banking sector continues to stabilize following March’s crisis which saw the start of the collapse of a slew of U.S. banks.

Also considered was the nation’s GDP growth, with a forecast of 1.8% for 2023. “We have become more confident in our baseline estimate that the banking stress will subtract only a modest 0.4 percentage points from real GDP growth this year,” Jan Hatzius, Goldman’s chief economist stated in anote. “Regional bank stock prices have stabilized, deposit outflows have slowed, lending volumes have held up, and lending surveys point to only limited tightening ahead.”

The post Goldman Reduces U.S. Recession Probability Following Debt Deal appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

U.S. GDP growth was 1.3% in the first quarter of 2023, meaning that U.S. economic growth is yet to collapse since the coronavirus pandemic. Several major U.S. corporations reported strong Q1 earnings, with specialty clothing retailers Abercrombie & Fitch and Urban Outfitters reporting significant sales rises while Nvidia and Palo Alto Networks reported upbeat earnings forecasts, signaling that business-to-business sales are also proving strong.

Although a group of economists from Citi stated on Thursday that further rate hikes from the Federal Reserve may be needed in order to cool inflation, Fed Chair Jerome Powell revealed that there is a possibility that the central bank may pause its rate hikes, stating that he prefers to keep his options open ahead of the next policy meeting.

Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins expressed hope that rate hikes could be tamed, explaining: “While inflation is still too high, there are some promising signs of moderation. I believe we may be at, or near, the point where monetary policy can pause raising interest rates.”

The post GDP, Jobs Data Subside Recession Fears appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

I’m less enamored with the story that credit conditions will tighten appreciably enough to send the U.S. economy into recession,” Bullard stated during a call with reporters. “You’re only talking about a portion of the total amount of intermediation that’s going on. It’s not big enough by itself to send the U.S. economy into recession. Other things would have to happen.”

In Bullard’s view, with only 20% of bank deposits leaving the system, there doesn’t seem to be enough of a change to affect lending. Bullard believes that lending will persist so long as banks maintain enough liquidity and capital to extend loans.

While some have suggested that the Federal Reserve lower its interest rate on its reverse repo facility to encourage money market funds to lend back to banks, Bullard stated that the Federal Reserve does not currently have plans to change that.

The post Bank Failures Unlikely to Be Cause of Recession—Fed Official appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

The two-year US government-bond yield fell for a fifth consecutive session, shredding 6 basis points to 3.72%, while the 10-year note extended its decline to seven straight days, falling 3 basis points to 3.28%.

Asian stocks also declined on Thursday, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index declining by 0.7%. Indian shares provided a glimpse of optimism in Asia, with the Nifty 50 advancing after India’s central bank decided to pause its interest rate hikes.

European stocks rose, Stoxx Europe 600 gaining 0.4% during European morning trading. Germany’s 10-year yield remained little changed at 2.17%, while Britain’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 3.41%. With regard to individual shares, Shell surged after figures indicated that the company’s gas-trading business remained strong despite a price decrease.

The post Asian Stocks and Treasury Yields Extend Losses as Recession Worries Resurface appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

Data compiled by Bloomberg indicated that companies have raised just $19.7 billion via initial public offerings to date in 2023. This is a 70% drop from the same period last year and the lowest comparable amount since 2019.

In the United States, IPOs have raised just $3.2 billion so far this year; the steepest fall out of the global IPOs that were assessed in the Bloomberg report. While high inflation and the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate policy deterred investors last year, uncertainty in the banking sector has added to investors’ concerns.

Udhay Furtado, co-head of ECM, Asia Pacific at Citigroup Inc., acknowledged the effect that the Federal Reserve’s consistently tight monetary policy has had on investors’ eagerness to invest. “Rates is the number one issue, and there is a clear debate around how long the tightening lasts or changes direction and at what speed,” Furtado explained.

The post Global IPO Market Disrupted By Banking Instability appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.