Goldman Sachs Group Inc. lowered its probability of a U.S. recession over the next 12 months to 25% after the government’s anxiously-awaited debt ceiling deal was signed into law. This comes after the investment group upgraded its recession probability to 35% following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in March.
The investment giant’s decision to lower its recession odds is driven by the cooldown in market concerns as the banking sector continues to stabilize following March’s crisis which saw the start of the collapse of a slew of U.S. banks.
Also considered was the nation’s GDP growth, with a forecast of 1.8% for 2023. “We have become more confident in our baseline estimate that the banking stress will subtract only a modest 0.4 percentage points from real GDP growth this year,” Jan Hatzius, Goldman’s chief economist stated in anote. “Regional bank stock prices have stabilized, deposit outflows have slowed, lending volumes have held up, and lending surveys point to only limited tightening ahead.”