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Bank of England Expected to Forecast Recession Risk Ahead of General Election

Market analysts are expecting the Bank of England to forecast a challenging economic period for the United Kingdom in the months leading up to the next general election. This places pressure on UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, who will be required to call an election before the end of January 2024.

While the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee is yet to lower its gross domestic product estimate for late 2023 and early 2024, official data has indicated a rise in the probability of an impending recession.

“GDP growth has been weaker, the unemployment rate is higher and pay growth is finally easing across all gauges,” Bloomberg Economics observed. “Financial markets have responded to the recent flow of news by pricing in a smaller-than-50% chance that interest rates reach 5.5%, having seen a peak expectation of over 6% in the summer.”

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