Goldman Sachs’ analysts, led by Co-Head of Global Commodities Research Daan Struyven, wrote in a research note that they expect a daily surplus of 800,000 barrels in 2025, with the figure going as high as 1.4 million barrels a day next year.

“While the market has already priced in some future inventory builds, we expect large surpluses,” Goldman Sachs analysts stated.

Goldman Sachs is now forecasting $63 a barrel for Brent and $59 a barrel for WTI in 2025. In 2026, the oil prices are expected to be $58 a barrel for Brent and $55 a barrel for WTI.

“Oil prices would likely exceed our forecast if the Administration were to reverse tariffs sharply and deliver a reassuring message to markets, consumers, and businesses,” the research note added.

Additionally, the bank believes that the demand for oil will jump by only 300,000 barrels a day this year while drastically reducing its previous prediction for demand in 2026.

On Monday, Brent crude oil futures traded at $64.5 per barrel, while WTI futures traded at $61.45 per barrel.

The post Oil Prices Will Decline Through 2026 According to Goldman Sachs appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

The US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude saw a 1.4% or $0.97 slide to close the day at $70.77 per barrel. Brent crude, on the other hand, closed at $74.96 per barrel following a fall of 1.42% or $1.08.

Oil dropped earlier in October on optimism of a larger supply as well as weaker demand in China. It started recovering again throughout the first two days of this week before the sudden change caused by US crude inventories.

According to the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) weekly update, the US crude inventories have climbed to 426 million barrels following the addition of 5.5 million barrels last week. Analysts, on the other hand, expected an increase of only 270,000 barrels, while the industry group projected a 1.6 million-barrel rise.

According to Lipow Oil Associates’ Andrew Lipow, the unexpected increase could be attributed to ramped-up import activity as well as demand following Hurricane Milton.

“The large crude oil inventory build this week is offsetting the drop last week. But a lot of this is a result of the rebound in crude oil imports, a lot of it had to do with the hurricane,” said Lipow via CNBC.

The post Oil Slides After Increase in U.S. Crude Inventories Surpasses Expectations appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

Hurricane Milton, which has hit Florida, was a major driver of oil prices, with a quarter of fuel stations in the US state sold out of gasoline. The Iranian ballistic missile attack on Israel also sparked oil supply concerns, with onlookers anticipating an Israeli response.

Still, oil prices may be stabilized due to a decline in demand. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) downgraded its demand forecast for 2025 due to weakening economic activity in China and North America. “Without a genuine demand excess or supply shortage, the risk will remain skewed to the downside,” Tamas Varga at oil broker PVM warned.

The post Oil Prices Rise Amid Hurricane and Middle East Tensions appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

China’s finance minister is expected to introduce policy shifts aimed at shoring up economic growth. The minister is also expected to answer questions from reporters following the meeting.

Brent recovered from a 4.6% drop during the previous session, edging toward the $78 per barrel mark, while the US benchmark, West Texas Intermediate, rose above $74 per barrel.

Aside from the latest developments in China, Middle East tensions have also played a factor in driving oil prices, Morgan Stanley analysts have claimed. “Heightened geopolitical risks have supported oil prices and appear likely to continue to do so,” the Morgan Stanley team, including Martijn Rats and Charlotte Firkins, wrote in a note. “However, the underlying balance has continued to weaken.”

The post Oil Prices Steady as China Reevaluates Fiscal Stimulus appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

Looking at demand, the EIA expects domestic gas consumption to rise to a new record of 90.1 bcfd this year, up from a current high of 89.1 bcfd in 2023. In 2025, domestic gas consumption is expected to retreat back down to 89.1 bcfd. Should these projections prove correct, 2024 would be the first time since the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic that fuel demand declines.

The EIA expects liquified natural gas exports to rise to 12.1 bcfd in 2024, thereby breaking the record 11.9 bcfd set in 2023. In 2025, this number is projected to rise further to 13.8 bcfd.

The post EIA Expects U.S. Natgas Output to Decline in 2024 appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

OPEC+ is a coalition between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies and includes some of the biggest oil producers in the world, like Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. The members of the coalition agreed to cut their production by 2.2 million barrels per day in October 2022, followed by voluntary cuts of 1.6 million barrels per day in April 2023 in order to prevent oversupply and send the prices further down.

The voluntary 1.6 million barrels per day cut was recently extended to 2025, while the 2.2 million barrels per day cut was supposed to end in September with a gradual production increase of 180,000 barrels per day.

However, OPEC+ has now announced it will prolong the latter for at least two months while expecting to completely phase out the cuts in November 2025.

“In recognition of this strengthened resolve and renewed firm commitment, the eight participating countries have agreed to extend their additional voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day for two months until the end of November 2024, after which these cuts will be gradually phased out on a monthly basis starting December 1st, 2024, according to the attached schedule, with the flexibility to pause or reverse the adjustments as necessary,” OPEC said in a statement.

Brent crude futures traded at $71.06 a barrel on Friday after coming down by 2.24% or $1.63, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures traded at $67.67 per day after going down by 2.14%.

The post OPEC+ to Delay Increase in Oil Production Until December appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

Brent crude saw a 0.7% or $0.57 slide to trade at $76.36 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is trading at $73.05 a barrel after a 0.7% or $0.50 drop. Brent was already 0.3% down the previous week, while WTI slipped 1.7% at the same time.

There were previously concerns that the lack of Libya’s production would cause disruption in the global market, considering the country’s status as one of the biggest producers and exporters of oil.

However, experts believe that there won’t be a shortage of supply as OPEC+ plans to ramp up its output in October when eight members plan to produce an additional 180,000 barrels per day each. The weakening demand for oil in the United States and China, two of the largest consumers, is also playing a role.

 Additionally, the situation in Libya continues to get better, and production might be halted shorter than expected.

“The current disturbances in Libya’s oil production could provide room for added supply from OPEC+. But these fluctuations have become quite normal over the last few years, meaning any outages will probably be shortlived; with the news flow indicating signals for a restart of production have already been given,” Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodity analyst at SEB, told Reuters.

The post Oil Prices Come Down on Expected Output Increase By OPEC+ appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude jumped as high as 3.7% before later settling at 3.46% and trading at $77.42 per barrel.

Brent Crude, used as an international benchmark price, has gone up by 3.05% and was trading at $81.43 per barrel at one point.

 Tensions in Libya are currently on a high level, with several factions trying to take over the control of the country’s oil output. Experts believe that this could result in drastic cuts in production and exports. The country is currently the biggest oil producer in Africa and the 16th largest producer in the world.

“The biggest risk for the oil market is probably a further drop in Libyan oil production due to political tensions in the country, with a risk that production could fall from current levels of 1 million barrels per day to zero,” Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst with the Swiss bank UBS, told Reuters.

If Libya goes ahead with plans to lower its output, the United States is expected to be the biggest beneficiary. European countries are expected to turn to U.S. shale oil reserves in order to make up for the lack of oil from Libya.

The post Oil Prices Climb Amid Expected Drop of Oil Production in Libya appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

Chinese oil demand fell by 8% in July compared to the previous year, with the figure negatively affected by a rising demand for cleaner fuels as the clean energy transition continues. As a result of such trends, OPEC lowered its global demand forecast for 2024 in its monthly report released earlier in the week.

While a report from the American Petroleum Institute suggested a notable drop in U.S. crude stockpiles, official U.S. data showed that stockpiles rose by 1.36 million barrels last week. “Current market fundamentals suggest that OPEC+ is unlikely to increase production in the fourth quarter,” SEB AB commodities analyst Ole Hvalbye observed, explaining that the peak demand period for the northern hemisphere is nearing its end. Furthermore, an OPEC supply increase in October could lead to an oversupply, pushing prices downward.

The post Oil Recovers as Mideast Tension Raises Supply Concerns appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

Brent crude prices rose to around $81 per barrel while US benchmark West Texas Intermediate headed to $79 per barrel. This comes after both prices declined by around 2% during the previous session. Citigroup Inc. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts believe that Brent futures may continue to rise due to weather risks and geopolitical instability, with both banks expecting Brent to rise to the mid $80s level per barrel.

“The escalation of the conflict in the Middle East is a clear upside risk to oil prices over the next six months and potentially even longer,” Vivek Dhar of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia observed.

Prices may still shift lower at certain stages amid the possibility of a global surplus as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries considers restoring production in October. OPEC+’s decision to resume output could largely depend on its demand forecasts, with the cartel expecting a decline in global demand as Chinese demand drops as well.

The post Oil Prices Rebound as U.S. Stockpiles Drop appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

Goldman Sachs’ analysts, led by Co-Head of Global Commodities Research Daan Struyven, wrote in a research note that they expect a daily surplus of 800,000 barrels in 2025, with the figure going as high as 1.4 million barrels a day next year.

“While the market has already priced in some future inventory builds, we expect large surpluses,” Goldman Sachs analysts stated.

Goldman Sachs is now forecasting $63 a barrel for Brent and $59 a barrel for WTI in 2025. In 2026, the oil prices are expected to be $58 a barrel for Brent and $55 a barrel for WTI.

“Oil prices would likely exceed our forecast if the Administration were to reverse tariffs sharply and deliver a reassuring message to markets, consumers, and businesses,” the research note added.

Additionally, the bank believes that the demand for oil will jump by only 300,000 barrels a day this year while drastically reducing its previous prediction for demand in 2026.

On Monday, Brent crude oil futures traded at $64.5 per barrel, while WTI futures traded at $61.45 per barrel.

The post Oil Prices Will Decline Through 2026 According to Goldman Sachs appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

The US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude saw a 1.4% or $0.97 slide to close the day at $70.77 per barrel. Brent crude, on the other hand, closed at $74.96 per barrel following a fall of 1.42% or $1.08.

Oil dropped earlier in October on optimism of a larger supply as well as weaker demand in China. It started recovering again throughout the first two days of this week before the sudden change caused by US crude inventories.

According to the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) weekly update, the US crude inventories have climbed to 426 million barrels following the addition of 5.5 million barrels last week. Analysts, on the other hand, expected an increase of only 270,000 barrels, while the industry group projected a 1.6 million-barrel rise.

According to Lipow Oil Associates’ Andrew Lipow, the unexpected increase could be attributed to ramped-up import activity as well as demand following Hurricane Milton.

“The large crude oil inventory build this week is offsetting the drop last week. But a lot of this is a result of the rebound in crude oil imports, a lot of it had to do with the hurricane,” said Lipow via CNBC.

The post Oil Slides After Increase in U.S. Crude Inventories Surpasses Expectations appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

Hurricane Milton, which has hit Florida, was a major driver of oil prices, with a quarter of fuel stations in the US state sold out of gasoline. The Iranian ballistic missile attack on Israel also sparked oil supply concerns, with onlookers anticipating an Israeli response.

Still, oil prices may be stabilized due to a decline in demand. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) downgraded its demand forecast for 2025 due to weakening economic activity in China and North America. “Without a genuine demand excess or supply shortage, the risk will remain skewed to the downside,” Tamas Varga at oil broker PVM warned.

The post Oil Prices Rise Amid Hurricane and Middle East Tensions appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

China’s finance minister is expected to introduce policy shifts aimed at shoring up economic growth. The minister is also expected to answer questions from reporters following the meeting.

Brent recovered from a 4.6% drop during the previous session, edging toward the $78 per barrel mark, while the US benchmark, West Texas Intermediate, rose above $74 per barrel.

Aside from the latest developments in China, Middle East tensions have also played a factor in driving oil prices, Morgan Stanley analysts have claimed. “Heightened geopolitical risks have supported oil prices and appear likely to continue to do so,” the Morgan Stanley team, including Martijn Rats and Charlotte Firkins, wrote in a note. “However, the underlying balance has continued to weaken.”

The post Oil Prices Steady as China Reevaluates Fiscal Stimulus appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

Looking at demand, the EIA expects domestic gas consumption to rise to a new record of 90.1 bcfd this year, up from a current high of 89.1 bcfd in 2023. In 2025, domestic gas consumption is expected to retreat back down to 89.1 bcfd. Should these projections prove correct, 2024 would be the first time since the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic that fuel demand declines.

The EIA expects liquified natural gas exports to rise to 12.1 bcfd in 2024, thereby breaking the record 11.9 bcfd set in 2023. In 2025, this number is projected to rise further to 13.8 bcfd.

The post EIA Expects U.S. Natgas Output to Decline in 2024 appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

OPEC+ is a coalition between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies and includes some of the biggest oil producers in the world, like Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. The members of the coalition agreed to cut their production by 2.2 million barrels per day in October 2022, followed by voluntary cuts of 1.6 million barrels per day in April 2023 in order to prevent oversupply and send the prices further down.

The voluntary 1.6 million barrels per day cut was recently extended to 2025, while the 2.2 million barrels per day cut was supposed to end in September with a gradual production increase of 180,000 barrels per day.

However, OPEC+ has now announced it will prolong the latter for at least two months while expecting to completely phase out the cuts in November 2025.

“In recognition of this strengthened resolve and renewed firm commitment, the eight participating countries have agreed to extend their additional voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day for two months until the end of November 2024, after which these cuts will be gradually phased out on a monthly basis starting December 1st, 2024, according to the attached schedule, with the flexibility to pause or reverse the adjustments as necessary,” OPEC said in a statement.

Brent crude futures traded at $71.06 a barrel on Friday after coming down by 2.24% or $1.63, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures traded at $67.67 per day after going down by 2.14%.

The post OPEC+ to Delay Increase in Oil Production Until December appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

Brent crude saw a 0.7% or $0.57 slide to trade at $76.36 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is trading at $73.05 a barrel after a 0.7% or $0.50 drop. Brent was already 0.3% down the previous week, while WTI slipped 1.7% at the same time.

There were previously concerns that the lack of Libya’s production would cause disruption in the global market, considering the country’s status as one of the biggest producers and exporters of oil.

However, experts believe that there won’t be a shortage of supply as OPEC+ plans to ramp up its output in October when eight members plan to produce an additional 180,000 barrels per day each. The weakening demand for oil in the United States and China, two of the largest consumers, is also playing a role.

 Additionally, the situation in Libya continues to get better, and production might be halted shorter than expected.

“The current disturbances in Libya’s oil production could provide room for added supply from OPEC+. But these fluctuations have become quite normal over the last few years, meaning any outages will probably be shortlived; with the news flow indicating signals for a restart of production have already been given,” Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodity analyst at SEB, told Reuters.

The post Oil Prices Come Down on Expected Output Increase By OPEC+ appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude jumped as high as 3.7% before later settling at 3.46% and trading at $77.42 per barrel.

Brent Crude, used as an international benchmark price, has gone up by 3.05% and was trading at $81.43 per barrel at one point.

 Tensions in Libya are currently on a high level, with several factions trying to take over the control of the country’s oil output. Experts believe that this could result in drastic cuts in production and exports. The country is currently the biggest oil producer in Africa and the 16th largest producer in the world.

“The biggest risk for the oil market is probably a further drop in Libyan oil production due to political tensions in the country, with a risk that production could fall from current levels of 1 million barrels per day to zero,” Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst with the Swiss bank UBS, told Reuters.

If Libya goes ahead with plans to lower its output, the United States is expected to be the biggest beneficiary. European countries are expected to turn to U.S. shale oil reserves in order to make up for the lack of oil from Libya.

The post Oil Prices Climb Amid Expected Drop of Oil Production in Libya appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

Chinese oil demand fell by 8% in July compared to the previous year, with the figure negatively affected by a rising demand for cleaner fuels as the clean energy transition continues. As a result of such trends, OPEC lowered its global demand forecast for 2024 in its monthly report released earlier in the week.

While a report from the American Petroleum Institute suggested a notable drop in U.S. crude stockpiles, official U.S. data showed that stockpiles rose by 1.36 million barrels last week. “Current market fundamentals suggest that OPEC+ is unlikely to increase production in the fourth quarter,” SEB AB commodities analyst Ole Hvalbye observed, explaining that the peak demand period for the northern hemisphere is nearing its end. Furthermore, an OPEC supply increase in October could lead to an oversupply, pushing prices downward.

The post Oil Recovers as Mideast Tension Raises Supply Concerns appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

Brent crude prices rose to around $81 per barrel while US benchmark West Texas Intermediate headed to $79 per barrel. This comes after both prices declined by around 2% during the previous session. Citigroup Inc. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts believe that Brent futures may continue to rise due to weather risks and geopolitical instability, with both banks expecting Brent to rise to the mid $80s level per barrel.

“The escalation of the conflict in the Middle East is a clear upside risk to oil prices over the next six months and potentially even longer,” Vivek Dhar of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia observed.

Prices may still shift lower at certain stages amid the possibility of a global surplus as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries considers restoring production in October. OPEC+’s decision to resume output could largely depend on its demand forecasts, with the cartel expecting a decline in global demand as Chinese demand drops as well.

The post Oil Prices Rebound as U.S. Stockpiles Drop appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.