Oil prices will drop further this year, with the trend spilling over to 2026, according to Goldman Sachs. The investment bank forecasts that increased production output from OPEC+ and the looming risk of recessions will lead to “large surpluses,” which will weigh down on the prices.
Goldman Sachs’ analysts, led by Co-Head of Global Commodities Research Daan Struyven, wrote in a research note that they expect a daily surplus of 800,000 barrels in 2025, with the figure going as high as 1.4 million barrels a day next year.
“While the market has already priced in some future inventory builds, we expect large surpluses,” Goldman Sachs analysts stated.
Goldman Sachs is now forecasting $63 a barrel for Brent and $59 a barrel for WTI in 2025. In 2026, the oil prices are expected to be $58 a barrel for Brent and $55 a barrel for WTI.
“Oil prices would likely exceed our forecast if the Administration were to reverse tariffs sharply and deliver a reassuring message to markets, consumers, and businesses,” the research note added.
Additionally, the bank believes that the demand for oil will jump by only 300,000 barrels a day this year while drastically reducing its previous prediction for demand in 2026.
On Monday, Brent crude oil futures traded at $64.5 per barrel, while WTI futures traded at $61.45 per barrel.