“I don’t see any signs that the economy is at risk of a downturn,” Yellen explained, taking note of the strong labor market as well as cooling inflation. “There’s absolutely no reason for a shutdown,” she advised, adding that “Creating a situation that could cause a loss of momentum is something we don’t need as a risk at this point.”

Although a strong labor market is seldom conducive to suppressing inflation, Yellen explained that because it is cooling, the labor market is providing room for inflation to decline to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

The post U.S. Treasury Secretary Confirms That U.S. Economy is Not Facing Downturn appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

Nomura Securities strategist Maki Sawada has forecast the Nikkei to remain in a range of 32,000-33,000 this week, however, explaining that key economic indicators this week may be directed at curbing aggressive buying of Japanese stocks. “It’s an environment conducive to fostering concerns the market is overbought, considering how far it’s come over a short amount of time,” Sawada observed.

Transportation stocks enjoyed a rampant rise on Monday, with Mazda jumping 4.14%, Nissan gaining 3.64%, and Toyota rising 3.1%. Overall, transport equipment makers made the TSE’s top three, gaining 2.78% on a whole.

The post Japanese Stocks Rise Amid US Optimism appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

In Europe, the pan-European Stoxx 600 edged higher by 0.1%, putting the index on track to record its third consecutive daily rise. The index was largely boosted by auto stocks, which rose by 1.5%.

Renault SA rose after increasing its full-year earnings guidance due to strong sales for its new models. Swedish retailer Hennes & Mauritz AB also climbed after reporting a smaller-than-expected decline in earnings.

Nasdaq futures gained 0.2% early Wednesday. The tech-heavy index was led by chipmaker Micron Technology Inc., which advanced by more than 3% in pre-market trading after delivering an upbeat sales forecast.

S&P 500 futures rose incrementally by 0.1%, while those on the Dow Jones Industrial Average remained little changed. Outside of the U.S. and Europe, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined 0.3% while the MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell by 0.5%.

The post Stocks Rise as Strong Earnings Report Supresses Recession Concerns appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

U.S. home sales rose in May, as did April home prices. May’s retail sales also beat consensus estimates, while the jobs report for the same month beat expectations, with 339,000 new jobs being added to the U.S. economy. This influx of positive data has also led to a rise in air travel, with more U.S. travelers going on vacation than in 2019 in seven of the last 10 days.

Consumers are becoming more optimistic regarding the likelihood of an incoming U.S. recession. 69.3% of consumers in June said a recession in the next 12 months is “somewhat” or “very likely,” compared to 72.2% in May.

Jefferies US economist Thomas Simons wrote in a note to investors that, “consumer attitudes remain resilient.” He explained that while there are still economic concerns plaguing the U.S., consumers are becoming less frightened of the prospect of an impending recession.

The post Strong Economic Data Extinguishes Recession Fears appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

The investment giant’s decision to lower its recession odds is driven by the cooldown in market concerns as the banking sector continues to stabilize following March’s crisis which saw the start of the collapse of a slew of U.S. banks.

Also considered was the nation’s GDP growth, with a forecast of 1.8% for 2023. “We have become more confident in our baseline estimate that the banking stress will subtract only a modest 0.4 percentage points from real GDP growth this year,” Jan Hatzius, Goldman’s chief economist stated in anote. “Regional bank stock prices have stabilized, deposit outflows have slowed, lending volumes have held up, and lending surveys point to only limited tightening ahead.”

The post Goldman Reduces U.S. Recession Probability Following Debt Deal appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

Figures from the Commerce Department showed that gross domestic product (GDP) was lower than the 2.6% growth from October through November last year as well as the 3.2% growth from July through September.

On the other hand, consumer spending, which happens to comprise 70% of total U.S. economic output, remained steady at a 3.7% annual pace of growth; the fast quarterly pace in almost two years.

The slowdown stems from the Federal Reserve’s aggressive money-tightening policy as it seeks to fight inflation, which included nine consecutive interest rate hikes over the past year. Even as inflation has been suppressed to a limited extent, it remains well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

According to experts, the Fed’s rate hikes are expected to lead the U.S. into a recession, with the Conference Board, a business research group, putting the probability of a U.S. recession over the next year at 99%.

The post U.S. Economic Growth Decelerates Over Q1 appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

This assessment comes after American Express announced its fourth-quarter results. Net sales for the company were $14.2 billion, falling marginally short of expectations of $14.21 billion in sales. AmEx shares rose 5% following the announcement.

Sales for the company’s U.S. consumer services and commercial segments proved strong, rising 23% and 15% respectively. With full-year sales growth of 15% to 17%, the company’s earnings are expected to be in the region of $11 to $11.40; thus exceeding analysts’ estimates of $10.52.

When questioned about the company’s sales for the fourth quarter, Squeri stated that a weakness in small business spending was detected, thereby leading to results narrowly missing estimates.

Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan echoed Squeri’s assessment of the likelihood of an incoming recession, despite BoA remaining in the “mild” recession category. “They’re spending nicely. The money in their accounts continues to be solid,” Moynihan said of his company’s clients’ spending patterns.

The post AmEx CEO Insists That Recessionary Signals Not Present appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

Among the indexes that were hardest hit was the Stoxx Europe 600 that plunged by 0.9% on Thursday morning’s early trading session. The 10-year treasury yield also experienced a significant drop to its lowest level since September.

Following the shortlived rally arising from optimism due to China’s economic reopening, stocks have fizzled as economic data exhibiting slowdowns in other regions emerges.

Sailesh Jha, the chief economist and head of market research for RHB Banking Group, offered the following analysis: “This weakness in equity markets will continue a bit longer in this first quarter of the year as the market reprices what the Fed will do.”

Copper declined by 1.2% in London trading, while oil fell for a second consecutive day as U.S. recession worries persist. Spot gold advanced by 0.2% to $1,908.60 per ounce.

The post Treasures Rise and Stocks Weaken Amid Recession Concerns appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

In response, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard recommended that he and his colleagues raise interest rates above 5% in an effort to suppress inflation as much as possible following the reading.

The Commerce Department stated in its report that retail sales on a whole fell by 1.1% last month, thereby exceeding analysts’ forecasts of a 0.8% decline. The Producer Price Index declined by 0.5% last month; the largest monthly drop since the pandemic.

The Nasdaq Composite experienced a 0.2% drop, while the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.4% and 0.7% respectively.

As economic conditions tighten, Microsoft announced its decision to cut 10,000 jobs in an effort to cut costs. Shares in United Airlines fell after the U.S. major carrier reported better-than-expected earnings during the final quarter of 2022.

The post U.S. Stocks Decline Following Caution of “Earnings Recession” appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

Having forecast global growth at 3.0% in June 2022, the World Bank now expects 2023 global GDP growth to be around 1.7%; the slowest pace outside of the 2009 and 2020 recessions.

“Given fragile economic conditions, any new adverse development — such as higher-than-expected inflation, abrupt rises in interest rates to contain it, a resurgence of the COVID-19 pandemic or escalating geopolitical tensions — could push the global economy into recession,” the bank explained in a statement.

According to the bank, slowdowns in major world economies could lead to another global recession just three years after the previous one. The World Bank has forecast just 0.5% growth for the United States and the eurozone.

Business investment is also expected to grow at a slowing rate, with a forecast of 3.5% being posted by the World Bank. The bank did note, however, that inflationary pressures across the globe began to subside during the closing stages of 2022, with energy and commodity prices being pushed down from their peak figures.

The post World Bank Slashes 2023 Forecast, Warns of Global Recession appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

“I don’t see any signs that the economy is at risk of a downturn,” Yellen explained, taking note of the strong labor market as well as cooling inflation. “There’s absolutely no reason for a shutdown,” she advised, adding that “Creating a situation that could cause a loss of momentum is something we don’t need as a risk at this point.”

Although a strong labor market is seldom conducive to suppressing inflation, Yellen explained that because it is cooling, the labor market is providing room for inflation to decline to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

The post U.S. Treasury Secretary Confirms That U.S. Economy is Not Facing Downturn appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

Nomura Securities strategist Maki Sawada has forecast the Nikkei to remain in a range of 32,000-33,000 this week, however, explaining that key economic indicators this week may be directed at curbing aggressive buying of Japanese stocks. “It’s an environment conducive to fostering concerns the market is overbought, considering how far it’s come over a short amount of time,” Sawada observed.

Transportation stocks enjoyed a rampant rise on Monday, with Mazda jumping 4.14%, Nissan gaining 3.64%, and Toyota rising 3.1%. Overall, transport equipment makers made the TSE’s top three, gaining 2.78% on a whole.

The post Japanese Stocks Rise Amid US Optimism appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

In Europe, the pan-European Stoxx 600 edged higher by 0.1%, putting the index on track to record its third consecutive daily rise. The index was largely boosted by auto stocks, which rose by 1.5%.

Renault SA rose after increasing its full-year earnings guidance due to strong sales for its new models. Swedish retailer Hennes & Mauritz AB also climbed after reporting a smaller-than-expected decline in earnings.

Nasdaq futures gained 0.2% early Wednesday. The tech-heavy index was led by chipmaker Micron Technology Inc., which advanced by more than 3% in pre-market trading after delivering an upbeat sales forecast.

S&P 500 futures rose incrementally by 0.1%, while those on the Dow Jones Industrial Average remained little changed. Outside of the U.S. and Europe, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined 0.3% while the MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell by 0.5%.

The post Stocks Rise as Strong Earnings Report Supresses Recession Concerns appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

U.S. home sales rose in May, as did April home prices. May’s retail sales also beat consensus estimates, while the jobs report for the same month beat expectations, with 339,000 new jobs being added to the U.S. economy. This influx of positive data has also led to a rise in air travel, with more U.S. travelers going on vacation than in 2019 in seven of the last 10 days.

Consumers are becoming more optimistic regarding the likelihood of an incoming U.S. recession. 69.3% of consumers in June said a recession in the next 12 months is “somewhat” or “very likely,” compared to 72.2% in May.

Jefferies US economist Thomas Simons wrote in a note to investors that, “consumer attitudes remain resilient.” He explained that while there are still economic concerns plaguing the U.S., consumers are becoming less frightened of the prospect of an impending recession.

The post Strong Economic Data Extinguishes Recession Fears appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

The investment giant’s decision to lower its recession odds is driven by the cooldown in market concerns as the banking sector continues to stabilize following March’s crisis which saw the start of the collapse of a slew of U.S. banks.

Also considered was the nation’s GDP growth, with a forecast of 1.8% for 2023. “We have become more confident in our baseline estimate that the banking stress will subtract only a modest 0.4 percentage points from real GDP growth this year,” Jan Hatzius, Goldman’s chief economist stated in anote. “Regional bank stock prices have stabilized, deposit outflows have slowed, lending volumes have held up, and lending surveys point to only limited tightening ahead.”

The post Goldman Reduces U.S. Recession Probability Following Debt Deal appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

Figures from the Commerce Department showed that gross domestic product (GDP) was lower than the 2.6% growth from October through November last year as well as the 3.2% growth from July through September.

On the other hand, consumer spending, which happens to comprise 70% of total U.S. economic output, remained steady at a 3.7% annual pace of growth; the fast quarterly pace in almost two years.

The slowdown stems from the Federal Reserve’s aggressive money-tightening policy as it seeks to fight inflation, which included nine consecutive interest rate hikes over the past year. Even as inflation has been suppressed to a limited extent, it remains well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

According to experts, the Fed’s rate hikes are expected to lead the U.S. into a recession, with the Conference Board, a business research group, putting the probability of a U.S. recession over the next year at 99%.

The post U.S. Economic Growth Decelerates Over Q1 appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

This assessment comes after American Express announced its fourth-quarter results. Net sales for the company were $14.2 billion, falling marginally short of expectations of $14.21 billion in sales. AmEx shares rose 5% following the announcement.

Sales for the company’s U.S. consumer services and commercial segments proved strong, rising 23% and 15% respectively. With full-year sales growth of 15% to 17%, the company’s earnings are expected to be in the region of $11 to $11.40; thus exceeding analysts’ estimates of $10.52.

When questioned about the company’s sales for the fourth quarter, Squeri stated that a weakness in small business spending was detected, thereby leading to results narrowly missing estimates.

Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan echoed Squeri’s assessment of the likelihood of an incoming recession, despite BoA remaining in the “mild” recession category. “They’re spending nicely. The money in their accounts continues to be solid,” Moynihan said of his company’s clients’ spending patterns.

The post AmEx CEO Insists That Recessionary Signals Not Present appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

Among the indexes that were hardest hit was the Stoxx Europe 600 that plunged by 0.9% on Thursday morning’s early trading session. The 10-year treasury yield also experienced a significant drop to its lowest level since September.

Following the shortlived rally arising from optimism due to China’s economic reopening, stocks have fizzled as economic data exhibiting slowdowns in other regions emerges.

Sailesh Jha, the chief economist and head of market research for RHB Banking Group, offered the following analysis: “This weakness in equity markets will continue a bit longer in this first quarter of the year as the market reprices what the Fed will do.”

Copper declined by 1.2% in London trading, while oil fell for a second consecutive day as U.S. recession worries persist. Spot gold advanced by 0.2% to $1,908.60 per ounce.

The post Treasures Rise and Stocks Weaken Amid Recession Concerns appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

In response, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard recommended that he and his colleagues raise interest rates above 5% in an effort to suppress inflation as much as possible following the reading.

The Commerce Department stated in its report that retail sales on a whole fell by 1.1% last month, thereby exceeding analysts’ forecasts of a 0.8% decline. The Producer Price Index declined by 0.5% last month; the largest monthly drop since the pandemic.

The Nasdaq Composite experienced a 0.2% drop, while the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.4% and 0.7% respectively.

As economic conditions tighten, Microsoft announced its decision to cut 10,000 jobs in an effort to cut costs. Shares in United Airlines fell after the U.S. major carrier reported better-than-expected earnings during the final quarter of 2022.

The post U.S. Stocks Decline Following Caution of “Earnings Recession” appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

Having forecast global growth at 3.0% in June 2022, the World Bank now expects 2023 global GDP growth to be around 1.7%; the slowest pace outside of the 2009 and 2020 recessions.

“Given fragile economic conditions, any new adverse development — such as higher-than-expected inflation, abrupt rises in interest rates to contain it, a resurgence of the COVID-19 pandemic or escalating geopolitical tensions — could push the global economy into recession,” the bank explained in a statement.

According to the bank, slowdowns in major world economies could lead to another global recession just three years after the previous one. The World Bank has forecast just 0.5% growth for the United States and the eurozone.

Business investment is also expected to grow at a slowing rate, with a forecast of 3.5% being posted by the World Bank. The bank did note, however, that inflationary pressures across the globe began to subside during the closing stages of 2022, with energy and commodity prices being pushed down from their peak figures.

The post World Bank Slashes 2023 Forecast, Warns of Global Recession appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.