Hatzius recalled that real disposable household income has grown at a pace of 4% in 2023, seeing it as a trend that will support resilient consumer spending. “We think 2024 is going to be a little weaker, but we’re still expecting about 3% real disposable household income growth. If that’s right, or even if that’s anywhere close to right, then it’s very difficult to see declines in real consumer spending,” the chief economist observed.

According to Hatzius, the U.S. unemployment rate should remain steady in 2024 at around 3.5%, with around 100,000 jobs expected to be created per month on average.

The post US Consumers Will Remain Resilient in 2024, Goldman Sachs Chief Executive Claims appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

223,000 non-farm payrolls were added in December, thereby outpacing the 202,000 payroll rise projected by Wall Street analysts. As a result, the U.S. unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, thereby proving the labor market’s resilience in the face of the Federal Reserve’s decision to raise interest rates to their highest levels in 15 years.

While the unemployment rate beat analysts’ estimates of 3.7%, average hourly earnings of non-farm employees on a monthly basis increased by 0.3%, falling marginally short of an expected 0.4% growth. On a year-over-year basis, average hourly earnings increased by 4.6%, falling short of projections of a 5.0% rise.

Despite employment numbers fluctuating in recent months, hiring continues to remain robust. This trend is contrary to the Federal Reserves’ aim to limit exponential job growth which is placing pressure on wages and driving inflation upward.

The post Payrolls Rise By 223,000 in Final 2022 Jobs Report appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

According to Bloomberg Data, Wall Street estimates a rise of 195,000 non-farm payrolls, compared to a 263,000 growth in September. While the unemployment rate in September stood at 3.5%, it is expected to rise by 0.1% in October to 3.6%.

Experts also expect a drop-off in average hourly earnings growth. The 0.3% growth in month-over-month average hourly earnings in September is expected to remain stagnant in October, while the 5% year-over-year average hourly earnings in September is expected to slip to 4.7% in October.

Shrinking U.S. job growth is a welcome sight for the Federal Reserve, particularly as the central bank has been attempting to ease the upward pressure on wages in an effort to cool price rises.

According to Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell, this decline in job growth may still not be enough to curb the inflation crisis sufficiently. “Although job vacancies have moved below their highs and the pace of job gains has slowed from earlier in the year, the labor market continues to be out of balance, with demand substantially exceeding the supply of available workers,” Powell explained.

The post Job Growth Expected to Shrink as October Jobs Report Looms appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

While the labor market in August is expected to have remained tight in the face of rate hikes to cool down inflationary pressures, Wall Street expects a rise in non-farm payrolls by 300,000. Average hourly earnings on a month-over-month basis are expected to rise by 0.4%, while hourly earnings on a year-over-year basis are expected to increase by 5.3%. These estimates exceed the month-over-month and year-over-year increases for July, which were 0.5% and 5.2% respectively.

Employment growth has persisted despite the outlook of numerous analysts that employment would ease in the face of cost reductions, particularly after Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole.

“While higher interest rates, slower growth and softer labor market conditions will bring down inflation, they will also bring some pain to households and businesses,” Powell explained, adding that these are the consequential “costs of reducing inflation.”

Jobless claims fell for a third consecutive week to the lowest level in two months, while first-time unemployment insurance filing are at 232,000, lower than Bloomberg’s estimate of 248,000.

The post Strong Employment Growth Expected Ahead of Jobs Report appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

The massive job gains have brought down the unemployment rate to 3.5%, returning the job market to its pre-pandemic levels. This jobless rate was last season in February 2020, when it marked the lowest point in almost 50 years.

Among other bits of info, the Bureau of Labor Statistics report also showed that Americans are earning 0.5% more per hour compared to an estimated 0.4%. Also, hourly earnings increased 5.2% year over year.

These numbers have caught experts by surprise as the Fed’s interest rate hikes and surging inflation were expected to cool off the U.S. labor market. However, it appears that the layoffs and job cuts mainly targeted the tech industry, with the service industry ramping up its hiring due to increased customer demand. A big part of the process was also businesses hiring back the employees they laid off during the pandemic.

Analysts now believe that these numbers will make the Fed even more aggressive with increasing interest rates. The committee is set to meet again in September when it might bump up the rates by another 0.7% points. This would be the third hike in the same range since June.

The post U.S. Labor Market Delivers a Surprise With Massive Job Gains appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

Hatzius recalled that real disposable household income has grown at a pace of 4% in 2023, seeing it as a trend that will support resilient consumer spending. “We think 2024 is going to be a little weaker, but we’re still expecting about 3% real disposable household income growth. If that’s right, or even if that’s anywhere close to right, then it’s very difficult to see declines in real consumer spending,” the chief economist observed.

According to Hatzius, the U.S. unemployment rate should remain steady in 2024 at around 3.5%, with around 100,000 jobs expected to be created per month on average.

The post US Consumers Will Remain Resilient in 2024, Goldman Sachs Chief Executive Claims appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

223,000 non-farm payrolls were added in December, thereby outpacing the 202,000 payroll rise projected by Wall Street analysts. As a result, the U.S. unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, thereby proving the labor market’s resilience in the face of the Federal Reserve’s decision to raise interest rates to their highest levels in 15 years.

While the unemployment rate beat analysts’ estimates of 3.7%, average hourly earnings of non-farm employees on a monthly basis increased by 0.3%, falling marginally short of an expected 0.4% growth. On a year-over-year basis, average hourly earnings increased by 4.6%, falling short of projections of a 5.0% rise.

Despite employment numbers fluctuating in recent months, hiring continues to remain robust. This trend is contrary to the Federal Reserves’ aim to limit exponential job growth which is placing pressure on wages and driving inflation upward.

The post Payrolls Rise By 223,000 in Final 2022 Jobs Report appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

According to Bloomberg Data, Wall Street estimates a rise of 195,000 non-farm payrolls, compared to a 263,000 growth in September. While the unemployment rate in September stood at 3.5%, it is expected to rise by 0.1% in October to 3.6%.

Experts also expect a drop-off in average hourly earnings growth. The 0.3% growth in month-over-month average hourly earnings in September is expected to remain stagnant in October, while the 5% year-over-year average hourly earnings in September is expected to slip to 4.7% in October.

Shrinking U.S. job growth is a welcome sight for the Federal Reserve, particularly as the central bank has been attempting to ease the upward pressure on wages in an effort to cool price rises.

According to Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell, this decline in job growth may still not be enough to curb the inflation crisis sufficiently. “Although job vacancies have moved below their highs and the pace of job gains has slowed from earlier in the year, the labor market continues to be out of balance, with demand substantially exceeding the supply of available workers,” Powell explained.

The post Job Growth Expected to Shrink as October Jobs Report Looms appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

While the labor market in August is expected to have remained tight in the face of rate hikes to cool down inflationary pressures, Wall Street expects a rise in non-farm payrolls by 300,000. Average hourly earnings on a month-over-month basis are expected to rise by 0.4%, while hourly earnings on a year-over-year basis are expected to increase by 5.3%. These estimates exceed the month-over-month and year-over-year increases for July, which were 0.5% and 5.2% respectively.

Employment growth has persisted despite the outlook of numerous analysts that employment would ease in the face of cost reductions, particularly after Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole.

“While higher interest rates, slower growth and softer labor market conditions will bring down inflation, they will also bring some pain to households and businesses,” Powell explained, adding that these are the consequential “costs of reducing inflation.”

Jobless claims fell for a third consecutive week to the lowest level in two months, while first-time unemployment insurance filing are at 232,000, lower than Bloomberg’s estimate of 248,000.

The post Strong Employment Growth Expected Ahead of Jobs Report appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

The massive job gains have brought down the unemployment rate to 3.5%, returning the job market to its pre-pandemic levels. This jobless rate was last season in February 2020, when it marked the lowest point in almost 50 years.

Among other bits of info, the Bureau of Labor Statistics report also showed that Americans are earning 0.5% more per hour compared to an estimated 0.4%. Also, hourly earnings increased 5.2% year over year.

These numbers have caught experts by surprise as the Fed’s interest rate hikes and surging inflation were expected to cool off the U.S. labor market. However, it appears that the layoffs and job cuts mainly targeted the tech industry, with the service industry ramping up its hiring due to increased customer demand. A big part of the process was also businesses hiring back the employees they laid off during the pandemic.

Analysts now believe that these numbers will make the Fed even more aggressive with increasing interest rates. The committee is set to meet again in September when it might bump up the rates by another 0.7% points. This would be the third hike in the same range since June.

The post U.S. Labor Market Delivers a Surprise With Massive Job Gains appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.