Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius is adamant that U.S. consumers will remain resilient in 2024 regardless of the stressors that they may encounter over the coming year. Hatzius expects incomes to continue growing, boosted by a rise in job creation and rising yields in interest-bearing assets such as savings accounts.
Hatzius recalled that real disposable household income has grown at a pace of 4% in 2023, seeing it as a trend that will support resilient consumer spending. “We think 2024 is going to be a little weaker, but we’re still expecting about 3% real disposable household income growth. If that’s right, or even if that’s anywhere close to right, then it’s very difficult to see declines in real consumer spending,” the chief economist observed.
According to Hatzius, the U.S. unemployment rate should remain steady in 2024 at around 3.5%, with around 100,000 jobs expected to be created per month on average.