The bank is forecasting the S&P 500 to end on 4,600 points at the end of 2023; a 0.4% rise from the 4,582.23 at Friday’s close. Citigroup also raised its target for 2024 from 4,400 points to 5,000 points; a 9% rise from current levels.

According to the New York City-based lender, companies listed on the S&P 500 are expected to draw in earnings of $220 per share on average for the current year; up from the previous forecast of $215 per share.

Citigroup’s change in target comes as it lowers its bets on the likelihood of a U.S. recession in the fourth quarter of 2023. Instead, the bank pushed this probability out to the first quarter of 2024.

The post Citigroup Lifts S&P 500 Year-End Target appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

Q2 earnings for companies are estimated to have fallen by 6.4% on a year-over-year basis. Despite still being a decline, this is a significant improvement from the 7.9% drop estimated the previous week.

The projection is based on the earnings results of 254 companies listed on the S&P 500 Index. Around 79% of reports that have already been released have beaten analysts’ expectations.

Among the major winners this week is Google parent company Alphabet Inc. With a 0.1% rise in year-over-year earnings, Alphabet significantly outperformed Wall Street’s expectations of a 5.1% fall.

Stocks have continued to rise as inflation, which remained surprisingly persistent, has been cooling, thereby raising bets that the Federal Reserve will soon end its aggressive monetary tightening campaign.

The post Forecast for S&P 500 Q2 Earnings Still Weak But Improving appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

“We are back in bull territory, which might be part of what it takes to get investors enthusiastic about equities again,” Savita Subramanian and the equity strategy team at Bank of America Global Research wrote in a note on Friday. “If investors feel pain in bonds, via lower returns or negative opportunity costs – likely if real rates rise from here – they should be incented to return to equities, especially equities that benefit from rising real rates (cyclical).”

According to research from the Bank of America, the S&P 500 rose 92% of the time throughout the 12 months since its bull market rise began. The historical average rise for any 12 months since 1950 is 75%.

While the bull market may be back, investors remain apprehensive to jump back into stock trading. One determining factor that will affect investor confidence is the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate decision at its June meeting. Currently, markets expect the Fed to pause its rate-hiking process.

The post S&P 500 Back in Bull Market, Bank of America Confirms appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

Futures on the S&P 500 edged higher by 0.1% on during Monday’s early trading, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced by 0.4%. Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by roughly the same margin; the equivalent of a 30-point drop.

Last Friday, each of New York’s indexes closed lower. While the Dow Jones Industrial was down 0.2% for the week, the S&P 500 ended the week 1.1% lower. The Nasdaq Composite Index took a 2.4% hit.

Investors are keeping a sharp lookout for the week’s upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI), due to be released on Tuesday. This is set to be followed by the government’s retail sales report on Wednesday and the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Thursday.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivered a speech last week that has already seen investors readjusting their interest rate expectations. Now, investors are convinced that rates will remain higher for longer despite indications of a cooldown in inflation.

The post Stock Futures Mixed Following S&P 500’s Worst Week of 2023 appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

The S&P 500’s losing streak led to the blue-chip index amassing total losses of 3.6% at the beginning of December. At the same time, the Nasdaq was down 4.4%; its worst first week of December since 1975.

Currently, a sustained interest rate hike and signs of an impending recession have led to skepticism in what is historically a positive month for stocks. Simultaneously, unemployment filings increased last week with initial jobless claims for the week ending December 3 standing at 230,000; a rise of 4,000 from the previous week.

Investor focus is now shifted toward the Federal Reserve’s final rate-setting meeting of 2022.

“We do not yet think the Federal Open Markets Committee is ready to signal the end of rate hikes is coming soon, but mathematically with the dot plot in hand, the December step toward ‘sufficiently restrictive’ will put them just 75 bps away from the Summary of Economic Projections’ (SEP) median terminal rate,” UBS economist Jonathan Pingle said of the upcoming meeting.

The post Stocks Rise as S&P 500 Looks to End Losing Streak appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

S&P Dow Jones Indices, which maintains the S&P 500, also said that the performance is in the top three worst for the index since 1957. This is how far its “live history” goes back.

The outlook for the future also remains bleak amid the Fed’s interest rate hikes, surging inflation, and the fears of recession. Morgan Stanley’s strategists are projecting another 20 percent slide for the S&P 500 if the recession actually takes place.

“We recognize a lot of pain has already been inflicted during this bear market. Nevertheless, we can’t yet get bullish,” Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson wrote in a recent analyst note.

On the other hand, Société Générale analyzed “crisis periods” for the US stock market in the past century and concluded that S&P 500 would most likely bottom out at a 34 percent to 40 percent decline compared to its January peak.

S&P 500 officially entered the bear market after suffering a 20.1 percent plunge since its peak in January. It represents the first bear market for the index since the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2022.

The post S&P 500 Has its Worst First Half in 50 Years appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

The bank is forecasting the S&P 500 to end on 4,600 points at the end of 2023; a 0.4% rise from the 4,582.23 at Friday’s close. Citigroup also raised its target for 2024 from 4,400 points to 5,000 points; a 9% rise from current levels.

According to the New York City-based lender, companies listed on the S&P 500 are expected to draw in earnings of $220 per share on average for the current year; up from the previous forecast of $215 per share.

Citigroup’s change in target comes as it lowers its bets on the likelihood of a U.S. recession in the fourth quarter of 2023. Instead, the bank pushed this probability out to the first quarter of 2024.

The post Citigroup Lifts S&P 500 Year-End Target appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

Q2 earnings for companies are estimated to have fallen by 6.4% on a year-over-year basis. Despite still being a decline, this is a significant improvement from the 7.9% drop estimated the previous week.

The projection is based on the earnings results of 254 companies listed on the S&P 500 Index. Around 79% of reports that have already been released have beaten analysts’ expectations.

Among the major winners this week is Google parent company Alphabet Inc. With a 0.1% rise in year-over-year earnings, Alphabet significantly outperformed Wall Street’s expectations of a 5.1% fall.

Stocks have continued to rise as inflation, which remained surprisingly persistent, has been cooling, thereby raising bets that the Federal Reserve will soon end its aggressive monetary tightening campaign.

The post Forecast for S&P 500 Q2 Earnings Still Weak But Improving appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

“We are back in bull territory, which might be part of what it takes to get investors enthusiastic about equities again,” Savita Subramanian and the equity strategy team at Bank of America Global Research wrote in a note on Friday. “If investors feel pain in bonds, via lower returns or negative opportunity costs – likely if real rates rise from here – they should be incented to return to equities, especially equities that benefit from rising real rates (cyclical).”

According to research from the Bank of America, the S&P 500 rose 92% of the time throughout the 12 months since its bull market rise began. The historical average rise for any 12 months since 1950 is 75%.

While the bull market may be back, investors remain apprehensive to jump back into stock trading. One determining factor that will affect investor confidence is the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate decision at its June meeting. Currently, markets expect the Fed to pause its rate-hiking process.

The post S&P 500 Back in Bull Market, Bank of America Confirms appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

Futures on the S&P 500 edged higher by 0.1% on during Monday’s early trading, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced by 0.4%. Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by roughly the same margin; the equivalent of a 30-point drop.

Last Friday, each of New York’s indexes closed lower. While the Dow Jones Industrial was down 0.2% for the week, the S&P 500 ended the week 1.1% lower. The Nasdaq Composite Index took a 2.4% hit.

Investors are keeping a sharp lookout for the week’s upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI), due to be released on Tuesday. This is set to be followed by the government’s retail sales report on Wednesday and the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Thursday.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivered a speech last week that has already seen investors readjusting their interest rate expectations. Now, investors are convinced that rates will remain higher for longer despite indications of a cooldown in inflation.

The post Stock Futures Mixed Following S&P 500’s Worst Week of 2023 appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

The S&P 500’s losing streak led to the blue-chip index amassing total losses of 3.6% at the beginning of December. At the same time, the Nasdaq was down 4.4%; its worst first week of December since 1975.

Currently, a sustained interest rate hike and signs of an impending recession have led to skepticism in what is historically a positive month for stocks. Simultaneously, unemployment filings increased last week with initial jobless claims for the week ending December 3 standing at 230,000; a rise of 4,000 from the previous week.

Investor focus is now shifted toward the Federal Reserve’s final rate-setting meeting of 2022.

“We do not yet think the Federal Open Markets Committee is ready to signal the end of rate hikes is coming soon, but mathematically with the dot plot in hand, the December step toward ‘sufficiently restrictive’ will put them just 75 bps away from the Summary of Economic Projections’ (SEP) median terminal rate,” UBS economist Jonathan Pingle said of the upcoming meeting.

The post Stocks Rise as S&P 500 Looks to End Losing Streak appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

S&P Dow Jones Indices, which maintains the S&P 500, also said that the performance is in the top three worst for the index since 1957. This is how far its “live history” goes back.

The outlook for the future also remains bleak amid the Fed’s interest rate hikes, surging inflation, and the fears of recession. Morgan Stanley’s strategists are projecting another 20 percent slide for the S&P 500 if the recession actually takes place.

“We recognize a lot of pain has already been inflicted during this bear market. Nevertheless, we can’t yet get bullish,” Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson wrote in a recent analyst note.

On the other hand, Société Générale analyzed “crisis periods” for the US stock market in the past century and concluded that S&P 500 would most likely bottom out at a 34 percent to 40 percent decline compared to its January peak.

S&P 500 officially entered the bear market after suffering a 20.1 percent plunge since its peak in January. It represents the first bear market for the index since the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2022.

The post S&P 500 Has its Worst First Half in 50 Years appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.