As the U.S. stock market continues its trend of underperforming, the S&P 500 just reached numbers not seen in the last 50 years. After the June trading wrapped up, S&P 500 recorded a decline of around 20 percent so far in 2022. This marks its worst first half since 1977.
S&P Dow Jones Indices, which maintains the S&P 500, also said that the performance is in the top three worst for the index since 1957. This is how far its “live history” goes back.
The outlook for the future also remains bleak amid the Fed’s interest rate hikes, surging inflation, and the fears of recession. Morgan Stanley’s strategists are projecting another 20 percent slide for the S&P 500 if the recession actually takes place.
“We recognize a lot of pain has already been inflicted during this bear market. Nevertheless, we can’t yet get bullish,” Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson wrote in a recent analyst note.
On the other hand, Société Générale analyzed “crisis periods” for the US stock market in the past century and concluded that S&P 500 would most likely bottom out at a 34 percent to 40 percent decline compared to its January peak.
S&P 500 officially entered the bear market after suffering a 20.1 percent plunge since its peak in January. It represents the first bear market for the index since the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2022.