“I don’t see any signs that the economy is at risk of a downturn,” Yellen explained, taking note of the strong labor market as well as cooling inflation. “There’s absolutely no reason for a shutdown,” she advised, adding that “Creating a situation that could cause a loss of momentum is something we don’t need as a risk at this point.”

Although a strong labor market is seldom conducive to suppressing inflation, Yellen explained that because it is cooling, the labor market is providing room for inflation to decline to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

The post U.S. Treasury Secretary Confirms That U.S. Economy is Not Facing Downturn appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

U.S. home sales rose in May, as did April home prices. May’s retail sales also beat consensus estimates, while the jobs report for the same month beat expectations, with 339,000 new jobs being added to the U.S. economy. This influx of positive data has also led to a rise in air travel, with more U.S. travelers going on vacation than in 2019 in seven of the last 10 days.

Consumers are becoming more optimistic regarding the likelihood of an incoming U.S. recession. 69.3% of consumers in June said a recession in the next 12 months is “somewhat” or “very likely,” compared to 72.2% in May.

Jefferies US economist Thomas Simons wrote in a note to investors that, “consumer attitudes remain resilient.” He explained that while there are still economic concerns plaguing the U.S., consumers are becoming less frightened of the prospect of an impending recession.

The post Strong Economic Data Extinguishes Recession Fears appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

The investment giant’s decision to lower its recession odds is driven by the cooldown in market concerns as the banking sector continues to stabilize following March’s crisis which saw the start of the collapse of a slew of U.S. banks.

Also considered was the nation’s GDP growth, with a forecast of 1.8% for 2023. “We have become more confident in our baseline estimate that the banking stress will subtract only a modest 0.4 percentage points from real GDP growth this year,” Jan Hatzius, Goldman’s chief economist stated in anote. “Regional bank stock prices have stabilized, deposit outflows have slowed, lending volumes have held up, and lending surveys point to only limited tightening ahead.”

The post Goldman Reduces U.S. Recession Probability Following Debt Deal appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

Among the indexes that were hardest hit was the Stoxx Europe 600 that plunged by 0.9% on Thursday morning’s early trading session. The 10-year treasury yield also experienced a significant drop to its lowest level since September.

Following the shortlived rally arising from optimism due to China’s economic reopening, stocks have fizzled as economic data exhibiting slowdowns in other regions emerges.

Sailesh Jha, the chief economist and head of market research for RHB Banking Group, offered the following analysis: “This weakness in equity markets will continue a bit longer in this first quarter of the year as the market reprices what the Fed will do.”

Copper declined by 1.2% in London trading, while oil fell for a second consecutive day as U.S. recession worries persist. Spot gold advanced by 0.2% to $1,908.60 per ounce.

The post Treasures Rise and Stocks Weaken Amid Recession Concerns appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

In response, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard recommended that he and his colleagues raise interest rates above 5% in an effort to suppress inflation as much as possible following the reading.

The Commerce Department stated in its report that retail sales on a whole fell by 1.1% last month, thereby exceeding analysts’ forecasts of a 0.8% decline. The Producer Price Index declined by 0.5% last month; the largest monthly drop since the pandemic.

The Nasdaq Composite experienced a 0.2% drop, while the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.4% and 0.7% respectively.

As economic conditions tighten, Microsoft announced its decision to cut 10,000 jobs in an effort to cut costs. Shares in United Airlines fell after the U.S. major carrier reported better-than-expected earnings during the final quarter of 2022.

The post U.S. Stocks Decline Following Caution of “Earnings Recession” appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

Deutsche Bank has been warning its clients about the incoming recession as early as April. At the time, the bank forecasted that the recession was coming by end-2023. However, after the recent interest rates hike, DB’s Chief U.S. economist Matt Luzzetti adjusted its original prediction.

“The Fed has undertaken a more aggressive hiking path, financial conditions have tightened sharply, and economic data are beginning to show clear signs of slowing,” said Luzzetti in a note sent to clients late last week. “In response to these developments, we now expect an earlier and somewhat more severe recession.”

Among other things, Luzzetti’s note also addresses the changes in the unemployment rate. As the economy slows down, the unemployment rate is expected to go up and reach 5.5 percent in 2024.

Goldman Sachs recently also made adjustments to their predictions regarding the recession. According to Goldman’s Chief Economist Jan Hatzius, the bank sees “recession risk as higher and more front-loaded.” As a result, Hatzius adjusted his recession probability from 15 percent to 30 percent.

The post Deutsche Bank Predicts “Earlier Than Expected” Recession appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

“I don’t see any signs that the economy is at risk of a downturn,” Yellen explained, taking note of the strong labor market as well as cooling inflation. “There’s absolutely no reason for a shutdown,” she advised, adding that “Creating a situation that could cause a loss of momentum is something we don’t need as a risk at this point.”

Although a strong labor market is seldom conducive to suppressing inflation, Yellen explained that because it is cooling, the labor market is providing room for inflation to decline to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

The post U.S. Treasury Secretary Confirms That U.S. Economy is Not Facing Downturn appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

U.S. home sales rose in May, as did April home prices. May’s retail sales also beat consensus estimates, while the jobs report for the same month beat expectations, with 339,000 new jobs being added to the U.S. economy. This influx of positive data has also led to a rise in air travel, with more U.S. travelers going on vacation than in 2019 in seven of the last 10 days.

Consumers are becoming more optimistic regarding the likelihood of an incoming U.S. recession. 69.3% of consumers in June said a recession in the next 12 months is “somewhat” or “very likely,” compared to 72.2% in May.

Jefferies US economist Thomas Simons wrote in a note to investors that, “consumer attitudes remain resilient.” He explained that while there are still economic concerns plaguing the U.S., consumers are becoming less frightened of the prospect of an impending recession.

The post Strong Economic Data Extinguishes Recession Fears appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

The investment giant’s decision to lower its recession odds is driven by the cooldown in market concerns as the banking sector continues to stabilize following March’s crisis which saw the start of the collapse of a slew of U.S. banks.

Also considered was the nation’s GDP growth, with a forecast of 1.8% for 2023. “We have become more confident in our baseline estimate that the banking stress will subtract only a modest 0.4 percentage points from real GDP growth this year,” Jan Hatzius, Goldman’s chief economist stated in anote. “Regional bank stock prices have stabilized, deposit outflows have slowed, lending volumes have held up, and lending surveys point to only limited tightening ahead.”

The post Goldman Reduces U.S. Recession Probability Following Debt Deal appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

Among the indexes that were hardest hit was the Stoxx Europe 600 that plunged by 0.9% on Thursday morning’s early trading session. The 10-year treasury yield also experienced a significant drop to its lowest level since September.

Following the shortlived rally arising from optimism due to China’s economic reopening, stocks have fizzled as economic data exhibiting slowdowns in other regions emerges.

Sailesh Jha, the chief economist and head of market research for RHB Banking Group, offered the following analysis: “This weakness in equity markets will continue a bit longer in this first quarter of the year as the market reprices what the Fed will do.”

Copper declined by 1.2% in London trading, while oil fell for a second consecutive day as U.S. recession worries persist. Spot gold advanced by 0.2% to $1,908.60 per ounce.

The post Treasures Rise and Stocks Weaken Amid Recession Concerns appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

In response, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard recommended that he and his colleagues raise interest rates above 5% in an effort to suppress inflation as much as possible following the reading.

The Commerce Department stated in its report that retail sales on a whole fell by 1.1% last month, thereby exceeding analysts’ forecasts of a 0.8% decline. The Producer Price Index declined by 0.5% last month; the largest monthly drop since the pandemic.

The Nasdaq Composite experienced a 0.2% drop, while the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.4% and 0.7% respectively.

As economic conditions tighten, Microsoft announced its decision to cut 10,000 jobs in an effort to cut costs. Shares in United Airlines fell after the U.S. major carrier reported better-than-expected earnings during the final quarter of 2022.

The post U.S. Stocks Decline Following Caution of “Earnings Recession” appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

Deutsche Bank has been warning its clients about the incoming recession as early as April. At the time, the bank forecasted that the recession was coming by end-2023. However, after the recent interest rates hike, DB’s Chief U.S. economist Matt Luzzetti adjusted its original prediction.

“The Fed has undertaken a more aggressive hiking path, financial conditions have tightened sharply, and economic data are beginning to show clear signs of slowing,” said Luzzetti in a note sent to clients late last week. “In response to these developments, we now expect an earlier and somewhat more severe recession.”

Among other things, Luzzetti’s note also addresses the changes in the unemployment rate. As the economy slows down, the unemployment rate is expected to go up and reach 5.5 percent in 2024.

Goldman Sachs recently also made adjustments to their predictions regarding the recession. According to Goldman’s Chief Economist Jan Hatzius, the bank sees “recession risk as higher and more front-loaded.” As a result, Hatzius adjusted his recession probability from 15 percent to 30 percent.

The post Deutsche Bank Predicts “Earlier Than Expected” Recession appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.