On a four-week average, jobless claims fell by 4,750 to 203,250; the lowest four-week average in almost a year. With weekly unemployment claims being viewed as a gauge for layoffs in a given week, the US labor market has remained unexpectedly strong despite steep interest rates and elevated inflation.

Although economists broadly expected the US economy to slip into a recession in late 2023, this was ultimately not the case, with the labor market remaining strong. The national unemployment has remained below 4% for 23 consecutive months; the longest streak since the 1960s.

The post Jobless Claims Hit Lowest Level Since September 2022 appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

After the latest ADP private-sector hiring data proved to be weaker than expected, all signs seem to be indicating that the U.S. job market is continuing to cool down. This is lifting pressure off markets, providing the Federal Reserve with room to reconsider further interest rate hikes.

In other news, oil prices continued to fall, with West Texas Intermediate futures slipping 1.7% to move below $84 per barrel while Brent crude futures declined by 1.6% to less than $84 per barrel as well. This comes amid concerns that demand will continue to fall amid a global economic slowdown.

The post Futures Remain Steady Ahead of Jobs Data appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

Although the actual figures outperformed Reuters’ estimate of 250,000 claims for the week, it is important to note that the U.S. Independence Day fell on Tuesday, thereby distorting the data.

While the Federal Reserve stated on Wednesday that the U.S. labor force remains healthy, the market has slowed down as the impact of the Fed’s 500 basis points in interest rate hikes has begun to take hold. The labor market is facing worker shortages in health care, hospitality, and transportation as well as several high-skilled positions.

Job growth in June slowed to its lowest rate in two and a half years. While jobless claims also remain low, this could be a result of some laid-off workers being unemployed for short periods of time.

The post U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims Fall Unexpectedly appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

Retail sales rose by 0.3% on a month-over-month basis, thereby outperforming an expected decline of 0.2%. Sales on an annual basis rose by 1.6%.

On the inflation front, consumer price index data showed that inflation cooled to 4% in May. This comes as the labor market softens, with jobless claims reaching 262,000 last week; the highest level since October 2021. Consensus estimates were 245,000 weekly claims.

Following the latest slew of economic data, the Federal Reserve announced its decision to pause its interest rate hikes, thereby keeping rates in the range of 5% to 5.25%. According to JP Morgan Asset Management global market strategist Jordan Jackson, the Fed’s rate hiking agenda should be nearing an end given the softening labor market.

“If you want to think about the labor market, that’s always the last shoe to fall. Once the labor market breaks, that’s when you’re in the recession,” Jackson explained. “I think the Fed should be done. I think further hikes, especially two more hikes potentially is overdoing it.”

The post U.S. Economy Emerges Stronger Than Expected According to Latest Data appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

Data from the Department of Labor on Thursday showed that applications for unemployment benefits in the U.S. fell by 16,000 to 230,000 for the week ending April 22. Over 1.86 million people were claiming unemployment benefits that week, down 3,000 from the previous week.

While jobless claims are higher than the 200,000 submitted at the start of the year, the U.S. labor market remains strong by historic standards. 236,000 jobs were added in March, lower than the 472,000 in January and the 326,000 in February but still historically strong.

Federal Reserve officials worry that the strong labor market could put pressure on wages and in turn prices, thereby undermining the fight to control inflation. While inflation was 5% year-over-year in March, it remains higher than the Fed’s 2% annual inflation target.

The post Labor Market Remains Strong as Jobless Claims Fall appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

The jobless claims have increased by 11,000 compared to last week’s 228,000. Also, the four-week moving average is at its highest since November 2021, coming at 240,000 after a jump of 2,250 claims.

While the latest numbers indicate that the job market might finally be slowing down, the unemployment insurance weekly claims remain at historically low levels. Most experts predict that Federal Reserve wants to see the mark of 270,000 jobless claims in order to consider its strategy of aggressive interest rate hikes successful.

The Fed has increased its interest rates nine times in the past year, with another one expected in May. However, the job market is still going strong, with the unemployment rate coming at 3.5% in March, which is just below the 53-year low of 3.4% from early 2023. Also, U.S. employers have added another 236,000 jobs, signaling that the economy still remains hot.

In its most recent projection report, the Fed revealed that it expects a 4.5% unemployment rate by the end of the year.

The post U.S. Unemployment Insurance Claims on the Rise, Highest in 15 Months appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

Weekly jobless claims for the week ended March 18 declined by 1,000 to 191,000, beating an estimate of 197,000 given by economists polled by Reuters. This represents a strong labor market, with unemployment remaining low even by historical standards despite the ongoing banking crisis as well as mass layoffs by big tech companies.

Although Indiana and Massachusetts saw an increase in unemployment claim filings, declines in California, Illinois, and New York offset this rise.

Despite the labor market exhibiting sustained strength, the Federal Reserve is set to maintain its tight fiscal policy as sustained inflation continues to pose an issue in the face of the banking crisis.

“The events of the last two weeks are likely to result in some tightening of credit conditions for households and businesses, and thereby weigh on demand on the labor market and inflation,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell told reporters after the latest Federal Reserve policy meeting on March 22.

The post Weekly Jobless Claims Decline As Job Market Remains Tight appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

While the labor market in August is expected to have remained tight in the face of rate hikes to cool down inflationary pressures, Wall Street expects a rise in non-farm payrolls by 300,000. Average hourly earnings on a month-over-month basis are expected to rise by 0.4%, while hourly earnings on a year-over-year basis are expected to increase by 5.3%. These estimates exceed the month-over-month and year-over-year increases for July, which were 0.5% and 5.2% respectively.

Employment growth has persisted despite the outlook of numerous analysts that employment would ease in the face of cost reductions, particularly after Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole.

“While higher interest rates, slower growth and softer labor market conditions will bring down inflation, they will also bring some pain to households and businesses,” Powell explained, adding that these are the consequential “costs of reducing inflation.”

Jobless claims fell for a third consecutive week to the lowest level in two months, while first-time unemployment insurance filing are at 232,000, lower than Bloomberg’s estimate of 248,000.

The post Strong Employment Growth Expected Ahead of Jobs Report appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

The four-week moving average, which is often a more accurate representation of the data, is at 232,500 first-time jobless claims. This is a 750 increase on the 231,750 unrevised average in the week before.

The continued claims are also on the rise, reaching 1.375 million. The figure represents a 51,000 increase and 35,000 more than 1.337 million estimated by FactSet.

These numbers are a good indication that once hot job market is beginning to go cold. The layoffs are already on the rise in the tech industry, where companies are trimming down the workforce or freezing new hires. This still hasn’t translated to other industries, but that could be just a matter of time, according to experts.

“Employers are beginning to respond to financial pressures and slowing demand by cutting costs,” said Andrew Challenger of the job placement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas. “While the labor market is still tight, that tightness may begin to ease in the next few months.”

The post Jobless Claims in the U.S. Hit the Highest Mark Since January appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

On a four-week average, jobless claims fell by 4,750 to 203,250; the lowest four-week average in almost a year. With weekly unemployment claims being viewed as a gauge for layoffs in a given week, the US labor market has remained unexpectedly strong despite steep interest rates and elevated inflation.

Although economists broadly expected the US economy to slip into a recession in late 2023, this was ultimately not the case, with the labor market remaining strong. The national unemployment has remained below 4% for 23 consecutive months; the longest streak since the 1960s.

The post Jobless Claims Hit Lowest Level Since September 2022 appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

After the latest ADP private-sector hiring data proved to be weaker than expected, all signs seem to be indicating that the U.S. job market is continuing to cool down. This is lifting pressure off markets, providing the Federal Reserve with room to reconsider further interest rate hikes.

In other news, oil prices continued to fall, with West Texas Intermediate futures slipping 1.7% to move below $84 per barrel while Brent crude futures declined by 1.6% to less than $84 per barrel as well. This comes amid concerns that demand will continue to fall amid a global economic slowdown.

The post Futures Remain Steady Ahead of Jobs Data appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

Although the actual figures outperformed Reuters’ estimate of 250,000 claims for the week, it is important to note that the U.S. Independence Day fell on Tuesday, thereby distorting the data.

While the Federal Reserve stated on Wednesday that the U.S. labor force remains healthy, the market has slowed down as the impact of the Fed’s 500 basis points in interest rate hikes has begun to take hold. The labor market is facing worker shortages in health care, hospitality, and transportation as well as several high-skilled positions.

Job growth in June slowed to its lowest rate in two and a half years. While jobless claims also remain low, this could be a result of some laid-off workers being unemployed for short periods of time.

The post U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims Fall Unexpectedly appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

Retail sales rose by 0.3% on a month-over-month basis, thereby outperforming an expected decline of 0.2%. Sales on an annual basis rose by 1.6%.

On the inflation front, consumer price index data showed that inflation cooled to 4% in May. This comes as the labor market softens, with jobless claims reaching 262,000 last week; the highest level since October 2021. Consensus estimates were 245,000 weekly claims.

Following the latest slew of economic data, the Federal Reserve announced its decision to pause its interest rate hikes, thereby keeping rates in the range of 5% to 5.25%. According to JP Morgan Asset Management global market strategist Jordan Jackson, the Fed’s rate hiking agenda should be nearing an end given the softening labor market.

“If you want to think about the labor market, that’s always the last shoe to fall. Once the labor market breaks, that’s when you’re in the recession,” Jackson explained. “I think the Fed should be done. I think further hikes, especially two more hikes potentially is overdoing it.”

The post U.S. Economy Emerges Stronger Than Expected According to Latest Data appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

Data from the Department of Labor on Thursday showed that applications for unemployment benefits in the U.S. fell by 16,000 to 230,000 for the week ending April 22. Over 1.86 million people were claiming unemployment benefits that week, down 3,000 from the previous week.

While jobless claims are higher than the 200,000 submitted at the start of the year, the U.S. labor market remains strong by historic standards. 236,000 jobs were added in March, lower than the 472,000 in January and the 326,000 in February but still historically strong.

Federal Reserve officials worry that the strong labor market could put pressure on wages and in turn prices, thereby undermining the fight to control inflation. While inflation was 5% year-over-year in March, it remains higher than the Fed’s 2% annual inflation target.

The post Labor Market Remains Strong as Jobless Claims Fall appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

The jobless claims have increased by 11,000 compared to last week’s 228,000. Also, the four-week moving average is at its highest since November 2021, coming at 240,000 after a jump of 2,250 claims.

While the latest numbers indicate that the job market might finally be slowing down, the unemployment insurance weekly claims remain at historically low levels. Most experts predict that Federal Reserve wants to see the mark of 270,000 jobless claims in order to consider its strategy of aggressive interest rate hikes successful.

The Fed has increased its interest rates nine times in the past year, with another one expected in May. However, the job market is still going strong, with the unemployment rate coming at 3.5% in March, which is just below the 53-year low of 3.4% from early 2023. Also, U.S. employers have added another 236,000 jobs, signaling that the economy still remains hot.

In its most recent projection report, the Fed revealed that it expects a 4.5% unemployment rate by the end of the year.

The post U.S. Unemployment Insurance Claims on the Rise, Highest in 15 Months appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

Weekly jobless claims for the week ended March 18 declined by 1,000 to 191,000, beating an estimate of 197,000 given by economists polled by Reuters. This represents a strong labor market, with unemployment remaining low even by historical standards despite the ongoing banking crisis as well as mass layoffs by big tech companies.

Although Indiana and Massachusetts saw an increase in unemployment claim filings, declines in California, Illinois, and New York offset this rise.

Despite the labor market exhibiting sustained strength, the Federal Reserve is set to maintain its tight fiscal policy as sustained inflation continues to pose an issue in the face of the banking crisis.

“The events of the last two weeks are likely to result in some tightening of credit conditions for households and businesses, and thereby weigh on demand on the labor market and inflation,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell told reporters after the latest Federal Reserve policy meeting on March 22.

The post Weekly Jobless Claims Decline As Job Market Remains Tight appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

While the labor market in August is expected to have remained tight in the face of rate hikes to cool down inflationary pressures, Wall Street expects a rise in non-farm payrolls by 300,000. Average hourly earnings on a month-over-month basis are expected to rise by 0.4%, while hourly earnings on a year-over-year basis are expected to increase by 5.3%. These estimates exceed the month-over-month and year-over-year increases for July, which were 0.5% and 5.2% respectively.

Employment growth has persisted despite the outlook of numerous analysts that employment would ease in the face of cost reductions, particularly after Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole.

“While higher interest rates, slower growth and softer labor market conditions will bring down inflation, they will also bring some pain to households and businesses,” Powell explained, adding that these are the consequential “costs of reducing inflation.”

Jobless claims fell for a third consecutive week to the lowest level in two months, while first-time unemployment insurance filing are at 232,000, lower than Bloomberg’s estimate of 248,000.

The post Strong Employment Growth Expected Ahead of Jobs Report appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

The four-week moving average, which is often a more accurate representation of the data, is at 232,500 first-time jobless claims. This is a 750 increase on the 231,750 unrevised average in the week before.

The continued claims are also on the rise, reaching 1.375 million. The figure represents a 51,000 increase and 35,000 more than 1.337 million estimated by FactSet.

These numbers are a good indication that once hot job market is beginning to go cold. The layoffs are already on the rise in the tech industry, where companies are trimming down the workforce or freezing new hires. This still hasn’t translated to other industries, but that could be just a matter of time, according to experts.

“Employers are beginning to respond to financial pressures and slowing demand by cutting costs,” said Andrew Challenger of the job placement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas. “While the labor market is still tight, that tightness may begin to ease in the next few months.”

The post Jobless Claims in the U.S. Hit the Highest Mark Since January appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.