Set to be published on Thursday, the personal consumption expenditures price index is expected to rise 3.1% in October compared to the previous year. Core inflation is expected to rise by 3.5%. Euro-region data, also due Thursday, is seen to be rising 2.7%—the lowest rise since July 2021. The core measure is expected to slow down to 3.9%.

Despite expectations of a slowdown across the board, officials from both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank remain convinced that more evidence is needed in order to convince them that consumer prices are indeed under control.”We’re certainly not declaring victory,” European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde affirmed.

The post Inflation Gauges May Support End of U.S., Eurozone Rate Hikes appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

While some European governments have expressed concerns about the ECB’s tight fiscal policy reducing economic growth, Lagarde stood by the ECB’s interest rate hiking agenda, explaining that she isn’t worried about the political implications of the policy.

Although the ECB did hit a pause in its rate hikes during its last policy meeting, borrowing costs remain elevated as the bank seeks to further shrink inflation toward the 2% mark. Lagarde affirmed that maintaining price stability is the ECB’s main priority.

The post ECB President Believes Central Bank Will Hit Inflation Target in 2025 appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

At its last policy meeting in September, the ECB raised its interest rates for the 10th straight month. This saw the deposit rate rise to a record 4%. According the Lagarde, such interest rate levels need to be maintained in order to lower inflation to the ECB’s 2% target.

While the ECB’s tight fiscal policy has slowed economic growth in the region, the ECB president maintained that bringing on a recession was not her intention. Still, she was quick to point out that this is a worldwide trend, adding “That’s why the International Monetary Fund has revised its forecasts lower in the whole world, except for the US.” The IMF is set to release its latest economic projections on Tuesday.

The post ECB President Adamant That Policy Will Lower Inflation appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

According to Eurostat, consumer inflation across the 20 countries sharing the euro currency was 0.5% month-on-month in August and 5.2% year-on-year. This is lower than the 5.3% year-on-year flash estimate reported on August 31.

Slovak ECB policymaker Peter Kazimir stated on Monday that the ECB’s decision last Thursday to continue raising its interest rates may have been the last for a while. Still, Kazimir warned that ECB policymakers have not ruled out the possibility of further interest rates in their entirety.

In August, expensive services added 2.41 percentage points to the final consumer inflation number, while food, alcohol, and tobacco added another 1.98 percentage points. Industrial goods added 1.19 points.

The post Euro Zone Inflation Revised Down By EU Statistics Office appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

“The market shouldn’t expect that we would jump too early to cut rates,” Kazaks explained during an interview. “We’ll start cutting rates when we see that we consistently and significantly start to undershoot our target, and what I can say clearly is that expectations of a rate cut in spring or early summer in my view are not really consistent with the macro scenario that we have.”

According to projections that were presented last week, inflation in the eurozone is expected to take another two years to reach 2% as it stands, even if price pressures continue to cool. Having remained stagnant throughout 2023, the Eurozone economy is expected to achieve quarterly growth rates of around 0.4% in 2024.

The post ECB Official Warns That Rate Cuts Unlikely in Early 2024 appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

With Europe facing continued cost pressures spearheaded by surging energy prices, money markets have priced a two-thirds chance that the European Central Bank will raise interest rates by 25 basis points. This is a stark change from earlier in the month when money markets expected a pause.

“The market is split on the ECB right now and we have to acknowledge the hawkish shift in expectations over the last two weeks,”  Geoffrey Yu, senior strategist at BNY Mellon remarked. “The risk-reward heading into the decision is not good for the euro.”

The post Stocks Mixed Ahead of ECB Decision appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

Money markets have priced a 45% chance that the ECB will implement a 25 basis point hike at its meeting on Thursday; a rise from the previous 40% probability reported on Monday. Still, investors expect that there is a higher likelihood that the ECB will keep rates constant, instead opting to institute a 25 bp hike later in the year.

On Tuesday, money markets priced an 80% chance that the ECB will implement a 25 bp hike after September before holding rates constant for the remainder of the year. This is up from a previous 75% probability given on Monday. In addition to the ECB’s upcoming meeting, analysts are also looking to digest the latest inflation data from the U.S. in the form of Wednesday’s consumer price index report.

The post Money Markets Price 80% Chance of 25 BP Hike By ECB Before Year End appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

With the ECB set to meet on Thursday, there is still the possibility of an interest rate pause depending on how policymakers digest the latest round of European economic data. Should this hike be implemented, it would be a 10th consecutive hike in borrowing costs. Although this is the most uncertain ECB decision to date in the markets’ eyes, Dutch official Klaas Knot claimed during an interview that observers could be underestimating the likelihood of a hike.

President Christine Lagarde is expected to convey a message on Thursday that the ECB will not loosen its grip on inflation, regardless of what direction the central bank takes at its policy meeting.

The post Bloomberg Predicts 25-Basis-Point ECB Hike appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

Measured against the greenback, the euro fell to its lowest point since mid-June at around $1.0766, declining 0.13% on the day. Still, the dollar strengthened overall against major world currencies as a whole, with the dollar index rising to 104.31, the highest since June 6. Most recently, the index slipped 0.1%, suggesting that observers are exhibiting caution ahead of Powell’s address at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium.

Aside from inflation concerns, the euro was also hit by a slump in manufacturing activity across the European continent. This slide in business activity has raised bets for further rate hikes.

The post Euro Slips Amid ECB Rate Talks appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

ECB President Christine Lagarde appeared to confirm an interest rate hike when the central bank’s governing council meets in Frankfurt on Thursday, explaining “we cannot waver, and we cannot declare victory yet.”

With the ECB’s rate hiking agenda nearing its conclusion, analysts are now debating whether or not the central bank will raise rates yet again in September or if July will be its last increase.

Currently, euro zone inflation is standing at 5.5; down from the double-digit peak in October but still far off the ECB’s target of 2%. The ECB’s rate hikes in the fight against inflation are the fastest since the euro was introduced in 1999. The whole euro zone economy fell slightly during the first three months of the year. Preliminary figures for the second quarter are expected on Monday.

The post ECB Set to Raise Interest Rates as Hiking Agenda Nears End appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

Set to be published on Thursday, the personal consumption expenditures price index is expected to rise 3.1% in October compared to the previous year. Core inflation is expected to rise by 3.5%. Euro-region data, also due Thursday, is seen to be rising 2.7%—the lowest rise since July 2021. The core measure is expected to slow down to 3.9%.

Despite expectations of a slowdown across the board, officials from both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank remain convinced that more evidence is needed in order to convince them that consumer prices are indeed under control.”We’re certainly not declaring victory,” European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde affirmed.

The post Inflation Gauges May Support End of U.S., Eurozone Rate Hikes appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

While some European governments have expressed concerns about the ECB’s tight fiscal policy reducing economic growth, Lagarde stood by the ECB’s interest rate hiking agenda, explaining that she isn’t worried about the political implications of the policy.

Although the ECB did hit a pause in its rate hikes during its last policy meeting, borrowing costs remain elevated as the bank seeks to further shrink inflation toward the 2% mark. Lagarde affirmed that maintaining price stability is the ECB’s main priority.

The post ECB President Believes Central Bank Will Hit Inflation Target in 2025 appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

At its last policy meeting in September, the ECB raised its interest rates for the 10th straight month. This saw the deposit rate rise to a record 4%. According the Lagarde, such interest rate levels need to be maintained in order to lower inflation to the ECB’s 2% target.

While the ECB’s tight fiscal policy has slowed economic growth in the region, the ECB president maintained that bringing on a recession was not her intention. Still, she was quick to point out that this is a worldwide trend, adding “That’s why the International Monetary Fund has revised its forecasts lower in the whole world, except for the US.” The IMF is set to release its latest economic projections on Tuesday.

The post ECB President Adamant That Policy Will Lower Inflation appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

According to Eurostat, consumer inflation across the 20 countries sharing the euro currency was 0.5% month-on-month in August and 5.2% year-on-year. This is lower than the 5.3% year-on-year flash estimate reported on August 31.

Slovak ECB policymaker Peter Kazimir stated on Monday that the ECB’s decision last Thursday to continue raising its interest rates may have been the last for a while. Still, Kazimir warned that ECB policymakers have not ruled out the possibility of further interest rates in their entirety.

In August, expensive services added 2.41 percentage points to the final consumer inflation number, while food, alcohol, and tobacco added another 1.98 percentage points. Industrial goods added 1.19 points.

The post Euro Zone Inflation Revised Down By EU Statistics Office appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

“The market shouldn’t expect that we would jump too early to cut rates,” Kazaks explained during an interview. “We’ll start cutting rates when we see that we consistently and significantly start to undershoot our target, and what I can say clearly is that expectations of a rate cut in spring or early summer in my view are not really consistent with the macro scenario that we have.”

According to projections that were presented last week, inflation in the eurozone is expected to take another two years to reach 2% as it stands, even if price pressures continue to cool. Having remained stagnant throughout 2023, the Eurozone economy is expected to achieve quarterly growth rates of around 0.4% in 2024.

The post ECB Official Warns That Rate Cuts Unlikely in Early 2024 appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

With Europe facing continued cost pressures spearheaded by surging energy prices, money markets have priced a two-thirds chance that the European Central Bank will raise interest rates by 25 basis points. This is a stark change from earlier in the month when money markets expected a pause.

“The market is split on the ECB right now and we have to acknowledge the hawkish shift in expectations over the last two weeks,”  Geoffrey Yu, senior strategist at BNY Mellon remarked. “The risk-reward heading into the decision is not good for the euro.”

The post Stocks Mixed Ahead of ECB Decision appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

Money markets have priced a 45% chance that the ECB will implement a 25 basis point hike at its meeting on Thursday; a rise from the previous 40% probability reported on Monday. Still, investors expect that there is a higher likelihood that the ECB will keep rates constant, instead opting to institute a 25 bp hike later in the year.

On Tuesday, money markets priced an 80% chance that the ECB will implement a 25 bp hike after September before holding rates constant for the remainder of the year. This is up from a previous 75% probability given on Monday. In addition to the ECB’s upcoming meeting, analysts are also looking to digest the latest inflation data from the U.S. in the form of Wednesday’s consumer price index report.

The post Money Markets Price 80% Chance of 25 BP Hike By ECB Before Year End appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

With the ECB set to meet on Thursday, there is still the possibility of an interest rate pause depending on how policymakers digest the latest round of European economic data. Should this hike be implemented, it would be a 10th consecutive hike in borrowing costs. Although this is the most uncertain ECB decision to date in the markets’ eyes, Dutch official Klaas Knot claimed during an interview that observers could be underestimating the likelihood of a hike.

President Christine Lagarde is expected to convey a message on Thursday that the ECB will not loosen its grip on inflation, regardless of what direction the central bank takes at its policy meeting.

The post Bloomberg Predicts 25-Basis-Point ECB Hike appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

Measured against the greenback, the euro fell to its lowest point since mid-June at around $1.0766, declining 0.13% on the day. Still, the dollar strengthened overall against major world currencies as a whole, with the dollar index rising to 104.31, the highest since June 6. Most recently, the index slipped 0.1%, suggesting that observers are exhibiting caution ahead of Powell’s address at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium.

Aside from inflation concerns, the euro was also hit by a slump in manufacturing activity across the European continent. This slide in business activity has raised bets for further rate hikes.

The post Euro Slips Amid ECB Rate Talks appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

ECB President Christine Lagarde appeared to confirm an interest rate hike when the central bank’s governing council meets in Frankfurt on Thursday, explaining “we cannot waver, and we cannot declare victory yet.”

With the ECB’s rate hiking agenda nearing its conclusion, analysts are now debating whether or not the central bank will raise rates yet again in September or if July will be its last increase.

Currently, euro zone inflation is standing at 5.5; down from the double-digit peak in October but still far off the ECB’s target of 2%. The ECB’s rate hikes in the fight against inflation are the fastest since the euro was introduced in 1999. The whole euro zone economy fell slightly during the first three months of the year. Preliminary figures for the second quarter are expected on Monday.

The post ECB Set to Raise Interest Rates as Hiking Agenda Nears End appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.