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Money Markets Price 80% Chance of 25 BP Hike By ECB Before Year End

Investors are raising bets that the European Central Bank will continue to raise its interest rates for longer than was previously expected. The ECB is set to reconvene on Thursday for its September policy meeting.

Money markets have priced a 45% chance that the ECB will implement a 25 basis point hike at its meeting on Thursday; a rise from the previous 40% probability reported on Monday. Still, investors expect that there is a higher likelihood that the ECB will keep rates constant, instead opting to institute a 25 bp hike later in the year.

On Tuesday, money markets priced an 80% chance that the ECB will implement a 25 bp hike after September before holding rates constant for the remainder of the year. This is up from a previous 75% probability given on Monday. In addition to the ECB’s upcoming meeting, analysts are also looking to digest the latest inflation data from the U.S. in the form of Wednesday’s consumer price index report.

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