The investment giant’s decision to lower its recession odds is driven by the cooldown in market concerns as the banking sector continues to stabilize following March’s crisis which saw the start of the collapse of a slew of U.S. banks.

Also considered was the nation’s GDP growth, with a forecast of 1.8% for 2023. “We have become more confident in our baseline estimate that the banking stress will subtract only a modest 0.4 percentage points from real GDP growth this year,” Jan Hatzius, Goldman’s chief economist stated in anote. “Regional bank stock prices have stabilized, deposit outflows have slowed, lending volumes have held up, and lending surveys point to only limited tightening ahead.”

The post Goldman Reduces U.S. Recession Probability Following Debt Deal appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

The legislation passed votes in both the House of Representatives and the Senate this past week after Biden and House of Representatives Speaker Kevin McCarthy reached an agreement last Saturday night following weeks of negotiations. While several deadlocks in negotiations were encountered, both sides worked to reach a deal as the Treasury Department warned that the government would be unable to pay its bills and ultimately be forced to default by Monday.

Following the finalization of the legislation, the White House released a statement reading: “Thank you to Speaker McCarthy, Leader Jeffries, Leader Schumer, and Leader McConnell for their partnership.” The Republican-controlled House of Representatives voted 314 to 117 in approval of the bill, while the Senate voted 63 to 36 in support.

According to Fitch Ratings, the U.S. government’s “AAA” credit rating would remain on negative watch despite reaching an agreement that keeps the government in line with its obligations.

The post U.S. Debt Ceiling Bill Signed Into Law appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

Futures on the S&P 500 edged 0.24% higher, while those on the Nasdaq Composite Index gained 0.16%. Contracts listed on the Dow Jones Industrial Average remained little changed.

With the bill being passed in a 314-117 vote in the House of Representatives, it is not set to be presented to the Senate, where it will be put to a second and final vote.

Although the House vote has been largely viewed as positive, Business Roundtable CEO Joshua Bolten cautioned that the process is not yet complete. “The deadline to raise the debt ceiling is rapidly approaching, and the likelihood of triggering a negative market reaction with severe economic consequences will only increase as we approach the precipice,” Bolten observed.

With such consequences in mind, Bolten called upon the Senate to pass the bill as soon as possible so as to advance the legislative process.

The post Stocks Rise as House Passes Debt Ceiling Deal appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

Contracts on the S&P 500 edged 0.62% higher while those on the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite index advanced by 1.39%. Futures listed on the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.02% lower.

While President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy were able to reach a tentative agreement on Sunday to raise the government’s debt ceiling, the bill still has to be approved by Congress in order to be enacted into law. The deal will be presented to the House Rules Committee on Tuesday, after which it is expected to be passed on to the House of Representatives for a vote on Wednesday. It will then be passed to the Senate for another vote.

As investors await the final outcome of the debt ceiling agreement, focus is also being placed on the U.S. jobs report that is set to be released later in the week. Economists polled by Bloomberg estimate a drop in monthly payroll additions from 253,000 in April to 180,000.

The post Futures Rise as Debt Ceiling Deal Set for Next Challenge appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

Both President Biden and House Speaker McCarthy expressed confidence that the agreement will pass in Congress and will therefore reach the President’s desk for signature, which will enact it into law.

West Texas Intermediate futures traded above $72 per barrel on Monday, thereby building on Friday’s 1.2% gain. Oil remains about 10% lower this year as investor confidence is rocked by the Federal Reserve’s extended monetary tightening policy and China’s rocky post-pandemic economic recovery.

Supply continues to remain in focus with OPEC+ scheduled to convene in Vienna on 3 and 4 June to discuss output levels. “The baseline expectation is that OPEC+ will keep quotas intact for the rest of the year,” Ed Bell, senior director for market economics at Dubai-based lender Emirates NBD PJSC, commented.

The post Oil Remains Steady as Traders Await Approval of Debt Ceiling Deal appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

Contracts on the Nasdaq 100 jumped 0.5%, while those on the S&P 500 climbed 0.4% higher. Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged higher by a little under 0.1%. In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.1% during early trading in London.

Investors expressed cautious optimism by returning to some riskier assets after it was announced late Saturday that the White House had reached an agreement to raise the government’s debt ceiling, thereby averting a catastrophic default.

President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy both expressed confidence that the agreed-upon legislation will be passed by Congress. The government will need to enact the proposed law by June 1, the self-imposed deadline when the government will run out of cash.

Dan Suzuki, deputy chief investment officer at Richard Bernstein Advisors claimed that this development allows investors to focus once again on market fundamentals when making investment decisions. “The obvious positive interpretation is that a negative tail risk is close to being taken off the table,” Suzuki commented.

The post U.S. Futures Rise Following Debt Ceiling Deal appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

McCarthy revealed to reporters that he and Biden are set to talk once again on Sunday before a bill for the legislation is put up for a vote in Congress on Wednesday.

In anticipation of the June 1 deadline, scores of investors decided to reduce their investment in riskier assets, instead gunning for safe havens. The dollar proved to be one such asset and is expected to be in focus in the coming days after a strong week.

“Markets should breathe a sigh of relief, with the dollar likely to soften a tad as the debt ceiling imbroglio is finally resolved,” Chang Wei Liang, a strategist at DBS Group Holdings in Singapore claimed. “The deal appears well-balanced between reducing spending while not jeopardizing growth, and is likely to be a small positive for US Treasuries.”

Outperforming its historical norms, the dollar advanced against all of its fellow Group-of-10 currencies, with the typically-safe haven yen declining to a six-month low against the dollar of under 140.

The post Global Market Relief Rally Expected Following Debt Ceiling Deal appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy sealed the deal during a 90-minute telephone call. The pair will now be responsible for drafting a legislative framework that will be used to legally enforce the agreement despite protests from the more radical wings of both the Democratic and Republican parties.

In addition to suspending the debt limit through 2025, the deal includes a two-year appropriations agreement to keep non-defense spending relatively unchanged.

Prior to the confirmation of the deal, economists feared that even a short-term default on the U.S. government’s loans could potentially lead to significant market declines and the loss of thousands of jobs.

The post U.S. Reaches Deal to Raise Debt Ceiling to Avoid Default appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

“It’s a one-two punch for gold. … If a deal is done over the weekend, then that will remove the biggest risk off the table,” Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA observed. Spot gold prices fell 0.87% to $1,939.97 an ounce, with gold futures sinking 1.1% to $1,943.70.

The U.S. dollar moved in the opposite direction, with the dollar index rising to 104.25, thereby showing that the greenback is strengthening against other major currencies. Treasury yields were also up.

U.S. stocks were mixed, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite gaining 0.88% and 1.71% respectively, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average sunk 0.11% lower. The STOXX 600 Europe index edged 0.3% lower.

Oil prices dropped after Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak dismissed the prospect of a further OPEC+ production cut next week. U.S. crude dropped 3.38% to $71.83 a barrel, while Brent crude futures traded 2.7% lower at $76.25 a barrel.

The post Gold Falls to Two-Month Low as Debt Ceiling Talks Progress appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

The Stoxx Europe 600 declined by 1.5% during the morning session; its largest drop in the last two months. LVMH and Cie Financiere Richemont SA were the largest fallers, with real estate and auto stocks taking some of the biggest hits amid renewed inflation concerns as UK consumer prices remained persistently high.

U.S. futures also headed lower, with contracts listed on both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 declining by 0.2%. Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were also down by 0.2%.

“The market is now at the point where it wants a little less conversation, a little more action,” Tony Sycamore, a market analyst at IG Australia said in reference to the ongoing U.S. debt ceiling talks. “The continued impasse is now viewed as bad news and overnight generated a traditional risk-off response of lower equities and a higher US dollar.”

In Asia, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.7% as investors continue to express concerns over China’s faltering post-pandemic economic rebound.

The post European Stocks Slide Amid Concerns Over China, Debt Ceiling Talks appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

The investment giant’s decision to lower its recession odds is driven by the cooldown in market concerns as the banking sector continues to stabilize following March’s crisis which saw the start of the collapse of a slew of U.S. banks.

Also considered was the nation’s GDP growth, with a forecast of 1.8% for 2023. “We have become more confident in our baseline estimate that the banking stress will subtract only a modest 0.4 percentage points from real GDP growth this year,” Jan Hatzius, Goldman’s chief economist stated in anote. “Regional bank stock prices have stabilized, deposit outflows have slowed, lending volumes have held up, and lending surveys point to only limited tightening ahead.”

The post Goldman Reduces U.S. Recession Probability Following Debt Deal appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

The legislation passed votes in both the House of Representatives and the Senate this past week after Biden and House of Representatives Speaker Kevin McCarthy reached an agreement last Saturday night following weeks of negotiations. While several deadlocks in negotiations were encountered, both sides worked to reach a deal as the Treasury Department warned that the government would be unable to pay its bills and ultimately be forced to default by Monday.

Following the finalization of the legislation, the White House released a statement reading: “Thank you to Speaker McCarthy, Leader Jeffries, Leader Schumer, and Leader McConnell for their partnership.” The Republican-controlled House of Representatives voted 314 to 117 in approval of the bill, while the Senate voted 63 to 36 in support.

According to Fitch Ratings, the U.S. government’s “AAA” credit rating would remain on negative watch despite reaching an agreement that keeps the government in line with its obligations.

The post U.S. Debt Ceiling Bill Signed Into Law appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

Futures on the S&P 500 edged 0.24% higher, while those on the Nasdaq Composite Index gained 0.16%. Contracts listed on the Dow Jones Industrial Average remained little changed.

With the bill being passed in a 314-117 vote in the House of Representatives, it is not set to be presented to the Senate, where it will be put to a second and final vote.

Although the House vote has been largely viewed as positive, Business Roundtable CEO Joshua Bolten cautioned that the process is not yet complete. “The deadline to raise the debt ceiling is rapidly approaching, and the likelihood of triggering a negative market reaction with severe economic consequences will only increase as we approach the precipice,” Bolten observed.

With such consequences in mind, Bolten called upon the Senate to pass the bill as soon as possible so as to advance the legislative process.

The post Stocks Rise as House Passes Debt Ceiling Deal appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

Contracts on the S&P 500 edged 0.62% higher while those on the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite index advanced by 1.39%. Futures listed on the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.02% lower.

While President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy were able to reach a tentative agreement on Sunday to raise the government’s debt ceiling, the bill still has to be approved by Congress in order to be enacted into law. The deal will be presented to the House Rules Committee on Tuesday, after which it is expected to be passed on to the House of Representatives for a vote on Wednesday. It will then be passed to the Senate for another vote.

As investors await the final outcome of the debt ceiling agreement, focus is also being placed on the U.S. jobs report that is set to be released later in the week. Economists polled by Bloomberg estimate a drop in monthly payroll additions from 253,000 in April to 180,000.

The post Futures Rise as Debt Ceiling Deal Set for Next Challenge appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

Both President Biden and House Speaker McCarthy expressed confidence that the agreement will pass in Congress and will therefore reach the President’s desk for signature, which will enact it into law.

West Texas Intermediate futures traded above $72 per barrel on Monday, thereby building on Friday’s 1.2% gain. Oil remains about 10% lower this year as investor confidence is rocked by the Federal Reserve’s extended monetary tightening policy and China’s rocky post-pandemic economic recovery.

Supply continues to remain in focus with OPEC+ scheduled to convene in Vienna on 3 and 4 June to discuss output levels. “The baseline expectation is that OPEC+ will keep quotas intact for the rest of the year,” Ed Bell, senior director for market economics at Dubai-based lender Emirates NBD PJSC, commented.

The post Oil Remains Steady as Traders Await Approval of Debt Ceiling Deal appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

Contracts on the Nasdaq 100 jumped 0.5%, while those on the S&P 500 climbed 0.4% higher. Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged higher by a little under 0.1%. In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.1% during early trading in London.

Investors expressed cautious optimism by returning to some riskier assets after it was announced late Saturday that the White House had reached an agreement to raise the government’s debt ceiling, thereby averting a catastrophic default.

President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy both expressed confidence that the agreed-upon legislation will be passed by Congress. The government will need to enact the proposed law by June 1, the self-imposed deadline when the government will run out of cash.

Dan Suzuki, deputy chief investment officer at Richard Bernstein Advisors claimed that this development allows investors to focus once again on market fundamentals when making investment decisions. “The obvious positive interpretation is that a negative tail risk is close to being taken off the table,” Suzuki commented.

The post U.S. Futures Rise Following Debt Ceiling Deal appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

McCarthy revealed to reporters that he and Biden are set to talk once again on Sunday before a bill for the legislation is put up for a vote in Congress on Wednesday.

In anticipation of the June 1 deadline, scores of investors decided to reduce their investment in riskier assets, instead gunning for safe havens. The dollar proved to be one such asset and is expected to be in focus in the coming days after a strong week.

“Markets should breathe a sigh of relief, with the dollar likely to soften a tad as the debt ceiling imbroglio is finally resolved,” Chang Wei Liang, a strategist at DBS Group Holdings in Singapore claimed. “The deal appears well-balanced between reducing spending while not jeopardizing growth, and is likely to be a small positive for US Treasuries.”

Outperforming its historical norms, the dollar advanced against all of its fellow Group-of-10 currencies, with the typically-safe haven yen declining to a six-month low against the dollar of under 140.

The post Global Market Relief Rally Expected Following Debt Ceiling Deal appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy sealed the deal during a 90-minute telephone call. The pair will now be responsible for drafting a legislative framework that will be used to legally enforce the agreement despite protests from the more radical wings of both the Democratic and Republican parties.

In addition to suspending the debt limit through 2025, the deal includes a two-year appropriations agreement to keep non-defense spending relatively unchanged.

Prior to the confirmation of the deal, economists feared that even a short-term default on the U.S. government’s loans could potentially lead to significant market declines and the loss of thousands of jobs.

The post U.S. Reaches Deal to Raise Debt Ceiling to Avoid Default appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

“It’s a one-two punch for gold. … If a deal is done over the weekend, then that will remove the biggest risk off the table,” Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA observed. Spot gold prices fell 0.87% to $1,939.97 an ounce, with gold futures sinking 1.1% to $1,943.70.

The U.S. dollar moved in the opposite direction, with the dollar index rising to 104.25, thereby showing that the greenback is strengthening against other major currencies. Treasury yields were also up.

U.S. stocks were mixed, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite gaining 0.88% and 1.71% respectively, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average sunk 0.11% lower. The STOXX 600 Europe index edged 0.3% lower.

Oil prices dropped after Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak dismissed the prospect of a further OPEC+ production cut next week. U.S. crude dropped 3.38% to $71.83 a barrel, while Brent crude futures traded 2.7% lower at $76.25 a barrel.

The post Gold Falls to Two-Month Low as Debt Ceiling Talks Progress appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

The Stoxx Europe 600 declined by 1.5% during the morning session; its largest drop in the last two months. LVMH and Cie Financiere Richemont SA were the largest fallers, with real estate and auto stocks taking some of the biggest hits amid renewed inflation concerns as UK consumer prices remained persistently high.

U.S. futures also headed lower, with contracts listed on both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 declining by 0.2%. Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were also down by 0.2%.

“The market is now at the point where it wants a little less conversation, a little more action,” Tony Sycamore, a market analyst at IG Australia said in reference to the ongoing U.S. debt ceiling talks. “The continued impasse is now viewed as bad news and overnight generated a traditional risk-off response of lower equities and a higher US dollar.”

In Asia, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.7% as investors continue to express concerns over China’s faltering post-pandemic economic rebound.

The post European Stocks Slide Amid Concerns Over China, Debt Ceiling Talks appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.