The U.S. labor market is expected to show signs of slowing in the July Jobs Report. 200,000 non-farm payrolls are expected to have been added last month, a slowing growth rate of 0.3% over June and 4.2% over the previous year. Unemployment is expected to hold steady at 3.6%.
“We expect the July employment report to show a continued gradual slowdown in employment growth and a decline in wage growth to a two-year low,” Andrew Hunter, deputy chief US economist at Capital Economics revealed. “That should give Fed officials a little more confidence that the moderation in core inflation will continue.”
Following an aggressive rate-hiking campaign, the Federal Reserve has indicated that it may bring an end to its interest rate hikes as inflation shows further signs of cooling, which includes the labor market slowdown.
Last week’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed that there are approximately 1.6 available workers for each open role, compared to a ratio closer to 2 to 1 a year ago.