Fitch has highlighted a large general government (GG) deficit in 2023, accounting for 8.8% of GDP in 2023, which the credit agency expects to fall to 8% in 2024 due to rising revenue growth and slashed government spending. “The interest burden, however, will continue to grow given the higher debt burden and impact of higher rates”, Fitch explained, suggesting that a declining GG deficit will not prove to be the entire solution to stunted economic growth.

Looking forward, the credit agency views the upcoming US presidential elections in November as a vital driver of the country’s economic trajectory given potential changes in policymaking.

The post Fitch Maintains AA+ Rating for U.S. Amid Stable Outlook appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

According to a Bloomberg poll of economists, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to implement four interest rate cuts throughout the year. Still, ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane has suggested that analysts are overconfident. Lane stated in an interview published over the weekend that premature rate cuts would be “self-defeating.”

“Today’s data could encourage the ECB to speed up monetary easing but we’re now getting at the stage when bad economic news no longer translates into good news for equity markets,” Benoit Péloille, chief investment officer at Natixis Wealth Management, stated.

The post European Stocks Slip Following Weaker Economic Data appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

Despite a poor start to the year, China’s retail sales and industrial production rose in December from a year ago, when a Covid-19 outbreak disrupted factory activities. On Friday, figures showed that China’s consumer prices fell in December for a third consecutive month; the country’s longest deflation streak since 2009.

Going into 2024, analysts are expecting China’s economic recovery to slow down. “The domestic demand recovery will be slow and bumpy as targeted stimulus measures trickle through to investment sectors and the property recovery proceeds at a snail-like pace,” Duncan Wrigley, chief China economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics commented.

The post China Expected to Meet Economic Growth Goals for 2023 appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

Upon surveying a panel of economists, Bloomberg found that the nation’s gross domestic product is projected to grow at 4.3% year-over-year. This would show that the U.S. remains economically strong while Europe and China continue to stagnate.

Personal consumption is expected to grow at a 4% rate, showing consumer resilience despite two years of high interest rates in the face of persistent inflation. Such promising economic data does look likely to convince the Fed to extend its tight fiscal policy, Fed Chair Jerome Powell admitted.

“Additional evidence of persistently above-trend growth, or that tightness in the labor market is no longer easing, could put further progress on inflation at risk and could warrant further tightening of monetary policy, Powell explained.

The post Latest Data Expected to Show Continued U.S. Economic Strength appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

The PMI, which surveyed a range of major manufacturers, climbed to 50.2 in September from 49.7 in August and beat a forecast of 50. The 50-point mark is what separates manufacturing activity contraction from expansion. China’s non-manufacturing PMI, which covers the service sector activity and construction, rose from 51.0 in August to 51.7 in September.

Zhou Hao, chief economist at Guotai Junan International, observed that “The manufacturing PMI, plus the good industrial profit figures, suggest that the economy is gradually bottoming out.” 

The post Chinese Economy Stabilizes Amid Rising Factory Activity appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Saturday showed that China’s consumer price index rose by 0.1% last month, reversing the trajectory of July’s 0.3% drop; its first decline in over two years.

‘The year-on-year increase in CPI was mainly helped by summer travel, which boosted transportation, cultural tourism, accommodation, catering, and other sectors,” Bruce Pang, chief economist at Jones Lang Lasalle Inc. remarked. Economic recovery was also aided by a 3% drop in producer prices.

The post China’s Consumer Prices Rise, Easing Economic Pressure appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

This comes after marginally cooler eurozone inflation data was released on Monday, along with optimistic eurozone economic growth figures. “Markets are showing signs of summer liquidity as investors take a much-deserved break,” Mohit Kumar, chief financial economist of Europe at Jefferies observed.

Following a sharp rise in European interest rates over the past 12 months, European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde indicated a possibility that the central bank may pause its rate hikes in September, thereby providing some relief to European bonds.

Manufacturing activity in July contracted at its fastest pace since the COVID pandemic, as was expected by analysts. This data, in contrast with positive inflation and economic growth data, has created a cloudy economic outlook for the eurozone.

The post Eurozone Bonds Hold Steady Amid Uncertain Economic Landscape appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

94.52 trillion pesos have been allocated to debt servicing, with a further 97.75 trillion pesos for new investments. The government allocated 70.5 trillion pesos for education, health, drinking water, and other general purposes, while 57.4 trillion pesos have been planned to support the state pension system.

President Gustavo Petro, Colombia’s first leftist president, has pledged to introduce a slew of social and economic reforms across several sectors including healthcare and labor. While his proposed labor reform bill was rejected by Congress, the government plans to reintroduce it.

The Autonomous Fiscal Rule Committee (CARF) has warned that such reforms could result in higher costs while risking noncompliance with the fiscal rule.

The post Colombia Presents 2024 Budget Proposal appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

Markets are betting that Friday’s report will show that 200,000 payrolls were added in July, with unemployment holding steady at a historic low of 3.6%. Hourly pay rates are also expected to have cooled, indicating a slowdown in inflation.

On the back of a consistent inflow of positive economic data, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell claimed that economists at the central bank are no longer convinced that a recession is likely to hit the United States in 2023.

Conditions in the US are contrary to those in Europe, where European Central Bank head Christine Lagarde commented that the economic situation in the eurozone has “deteriorated.” China’s economic outlook also appears bleak amid the country’s sluggish post-pandemic recovery.

A steady labor market has been the key cause of the Fed’s decision to uphold its interest rate hiking agenda. Because the government’s job opening data for June on Tuesday is expected to show a fifth straight monthly decline, markets are raising bets that the Fed’s aggressive rate hiking campaign is nearing its end.

The post US Economy Expected to Show Stability in Upcoming Jobs Data appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

This figure fell in line with analysts’ previous estimates of a 0.3% rise in May. For the second quarter, the Bank of Canada forecast a 1.5% annualized GDP rise. Should June’s GDP fall by 0.2%, however, this would result in a lower 1% year-on-year rise for the quarter.

Statscan observed that a rise in manufacturing and real estate sectors as well as a recovery in wholesale and public administration helped to drive economic growth in May. Manufacturing posted its highest rise since October 2021.

These increases helped to offset sustained losses in Canada’s energy sector, with raging wildfires in the main oil-producing province of Alberta pushing the sector lower.

The post Canadian Economy Expected to Contract in June Following Previous Rise appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

Fitch has highlighted a large general government (GG) deficit in 2023, accounting for 8.8% of GDP in 2023, which the credit agency expects to fall to 8% in 2024 due to rising revenue growth and slashed government spending. “The interest burden, however, will continue to grow given the higher debt burden and impact of higher rates”, Fitch explained, suggesting that a declining GG deficit will not prove to be the entire solution to stunted economic growth.

Looking forward, the credit agency views the upcoming US presidential elections in November as a vital driver of the country’s economic trajectory given potential changes in policymaking.

The post Fitch Maintains AA+ Rating for U.S. Amid Stable Outlook appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

According to a Bloomberg poll of economists, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to implement four interest rate cuts throughout the year. Still, ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane has suggested that analysts are overconfident. Lane stated in an interview published over the weekend that premature rate cuts would be “self-defeating.”

“Today’s data could encourage the ECB to speed up monetary easing but we’re now getting at the stage when bad economic news no longer translates into good news for equity markets,” Benoit Péloille, chief investment officer at Natixis Wealth Management, stated.

The post European Stocks Slip Following Weaker Economic Data appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

Despite a poor start to the year, China’s retail sales and industrial production rose in December from a year ago, when a Covid-19 outbreak disrupted factory activities. On Friday, figures showed that China’s consumer prices fell in December for a third consecutive month; the country’s longest deflation streak since 2009.

Going into 2024, analysts are expecting China’s economic recovery to slow down. “The domestic demand recovery will be slow and bumpy as targeted stimulus measures trickle through to investment sectors and the property recovery proceeds at a snail-like pace,” Duncan Wrigley, chief China economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics commented.

The post China Expected to Meet Economic Growth Goals for 2023 appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

Upon surveying a panel of economists, Bloomberg found that the nation’s gross domestic product is projected to grow at 4.3% year-over-year. This would show that the U.S. remains economically strong while Europe and China continue to stagnate.

Personal consumption is expected to grow at a 4% rate, showing consumer resilience despite two years of high interest rates in the face of persistent inflation. Such promising economic data does look likely to convince the Fed to extend its tight fiscal policy, Fed Chair Jerome Powell admitted.

“Additional evidence of persistently above-trend growth, or that tightness in the labor market is no longer easing, could put further progress on inflation at risk and could warrant further tightening of monetary policy, Powell explained.

The post Latest Data Expected to Show Continued U.S. Economic Strength appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

The PMI, which surveyed a range of major manufacturers, climbed to 50.2 in September from 49.7 in August and beat a forecast of 50. The 50-point mark is what separates manufacturing activity contraction from expansion. China’s non-manufacturing PMI, which covers the service sector activity and construction, rose from 51.0 in August to 51.7 in September.

Zhou Hao, chief economist at Guotai Junan International, observed that “The manufacturing PMI, plus the good industrial profit figures, suggest that the economy is gradually bottoming out.” 

The post Chinese Economy Stabilizes Amid Rising Factory Activity appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Saturday showed that China’s consumer price index rose by 0.1% last month, reversing the trajectory of July’s 0.3% drop; its first decline in over two years.

‘The year-on-year increase in CPI was mainly helped by summer travel, which boosted transportation, cultural tourism, accommodation, catering, and other sectors,” Bruce Pang, chief economist at Jones Lang Lasalle Inc. remarked. Economic recovery was also aided by a 3% drop in producer prices.

The post China’s Consumer Prices Rise, Easing Economic Pressure appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

This comes after marginally cooler eurozone inflation data was released on Monday, along with optimistic eurozone economic growth figures. “Markets are showing signs of summer liquidity as investors take a much-deserved break,” Mohit Kumar, chief financial economist of Europe at Jefferies observed.

Following a sharp rise in European interest rates over the past 12 months, European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde indicated a possibility that the central bank may pause its rate hikes in September, thereby providing some relief to European bonds.

Manufacturing activity in July contracted at its fastest pace since the COVID pandemic, as was expected by analysts. This data, in contrast with positive inflation and economic growth data, has created a cloudy economic outlook for the eurozone.

The post Eurozone Bonds Hold Steady Amid Uncertain Economic Landscape appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

94.52 trillion pesos have been allocated to debt servicing, with a further 97.75 trillion pesos for new investments. The government allocated 70.5 trillion pesos for education, health, drinking water, and other general purposes, while 57.4 trillion pesos have been planned to support the state pension system.

President Gustavo Petro, Colombia’s first leftist president, has pledged to introduce a slew of social and economic reforms across several sectors including healthcare and labor. While his proposed labor reform bill was rejected by Congress, the government plans to reintroduce it.

The Autonomous Fiscal Rule Committee (CARF) has warned that such reforms could result in higher costs while risking noncompliance with the fiscal rule.

The post Colombia Presents 2024 Budget Proposal appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

Markets are betting that Friday’s report will show that 200,000 payrolls were added in July, with unemployment holding steady at a historic low of 3.6%. Hourly pay rates are also expected to have cooled, indicating a slowdown in inflation.

On the back of a consistent inflow of positive economic data, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell claimed that economists at the central bank are no longer convinced that a recession is likely to hit the United States in 2023.

Conditions in the US are contrary to those in Europe, where European Central Bank head Christine Lagarde commented that the economic situation in the eurozone has “deteriorated.” China’s economic outlook also appears bleak amid the country’s sluggish post-pandemic recovery.

A steady labor market has been the key cause of the Fed’s decision to uphold its interest rate hiking agenda. Because the government’s job opening data for June on Tuesday is expected to show a fifth straight monthly decline, markets are raising bets that the Fed’s aggressive rate hiking campaign is nearing its end.

The post US Economy Expected to Show Stability in Upcoming Jobs Data appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

This figure fell in line with analysts’ previous estimates of a 0.3% rise in May. For the second quarter, the Bank of Canada forecast a 1.5% annualized GDP rise. Should June’s GDP fall by 0.2%, however, this would result in a lower 1% year-on-year rise for the quarter.

Statscan observed that a rise in manufacturing and real estate sectors as well as a recovery in wholesale and public administration helped to drive economic growth in May. Manufacturing posted its highest rise since October 2021.

These increases helped to offset sustained losses in Canada’s energy sector, with raging wildfires in the main oil-producing province of Alberta pushing the sector lower.

The post Canadian Economy Expected to Contract in June Following Previous Rise appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.