Both CPI measures beat the expectations of economists polled by Bloomberg, with forecasts being a 0.3% monthly gain and a 3.4% annual rise. While February’s monthly gains fell in line with March’s figures, March’s annual gain exceeded the 3.4% annual rise posted in February.

Looking at “core” inflation, which excludes more volatile food and energy costs, the CPI rose by 0.4% compared to February and 3.8% on a yearly basis. Economists expected a 0.3% monthly gain and a 3.7% year-over-year rise, with actual figures outpacing both. Should inflation continue this upward trend, the Federal Reserve may reconsider its stance on introducing interest rate cuts later in the year.

The post Consumer Price Index Comes in Hotter in March appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

Contracts listed on the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite index rose 0.3% higher, with futures on the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising marginally higher. The 10-year Treasury Yield rose to 4.45%, with 4.5% being viewed as a potential tipping point by some investors as it appears to be on track to return to last year’s highs.

Wednesday’s CPI report is expected to provide a deeper indication of whether the central bank will indeed consider implementing three rate cuts this year as previously mentioned by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Investor anxiety was stoked last Thursday when Minneapolis Fed president Neel Kashkari claimed that the Fed may even forego interest rate cuts entirely this year depending on the trajectory of price pressures.

The post Futures Stall as Markets Await Fresh Inflation Data appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

Despite consumer prices remaining more sticky than expected, analysts expect that the latest CPI reading will not have a major influence on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy and the timing of its prospective interest rate cuts. “Things are really where they should be at this point,” Oppenheimer chief investment strategist John Stoltzfus commented, expressing an indifference toward the rise in consumer prices in February.

Both Stoltzfus and chief economist for Manulife Frances Donald agreed that June appears to be a sound time for the U.S. central bank to introduce interest rate cuts. Still, expectations may be pushed back if economic data continues to show significant price increases.

The post Stubborn CPI Reading Unlikely to Affect Fed Rate Cuts appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

Equities on the benchmark S&P 500 slipped by 0.3%, as did those listed on the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite. Stocks listed on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were also down 0.3%. This comes after tech stocks declined on Friday.

Due on Tuesday, the Consumer Price Index is expected to shed more light on the trajectory of the Federal Reserve’s fiscal policy. Last week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell expressed during his testimony before Congress that the central bank is looking for confident signs that inflation is cooling before introducing the prospect of interest rate cuts.

The post U.S. Stocks Cool Amid Investor Anxiety Over CPI appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

Futures listed on the S&P 500 rose by 0.2% during premarket trading in New York, while those on the Nasdaq 100 advanced by 0.4%. Contracts listed on the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged higher by 0.1%. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 gained 0.1% while the MSCI World index remained relatively stagnant.

The dollar remained steady after its gains in the previous session, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot index remaining unchanged. The euro was also little changed at $1.0702, while the greenback strengthened against the pound, with the British currency slipping 0.3% to $1.2557.

The post Stock Futures Rise Following CPI Inflation Data appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

Markets are shifting their attention to Tuesday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for January, which is expected to provide clues as to the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate policy decision. “The market is still trying to get a sense of how much the Fed can lower interest rates and how quickly, and I think a softer CPI reading next week would certainly go a long way in encouraging the Fed that inflation is under control,” Gennadiy Goldberg, the head of U.S. rates strategy at TD Securities observed.

Given current economic conditions, traders are pricing an 18% chance that the Fed will implement a rate cut in March, down from 64% last month. A 58% chance of a May rate cut has been priced.

The post Bonds Hit Two-Month High Ahead of Inflation Data appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

According to the minutes from the Fed’s latest policy meeting in December, policymakers have acknowledged that interest rates appear to have peaked. Still, they “reaffirmed that it would be appropriate for policy to remain at a restrictive stance for some time until inflation was clearly moving down sustainably”.

The producer price index, set to be released on Friday, is expected to show that inflation, excluding food and energy, is also cooling on an annual basis. Outside of the U.S., investors await UK growth data as well as central bank decisions from South Korea and Peru.

The post Fed Optimism Persists Amid Easing Core Inflation appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

Bank of America has suggested that lower energy prices have helped to limit a rise in headline inflation on an annual basis. The bank expects a 3.5% decline in energy prices on a month-over-month basis; more than the 2.5% drop in October. On a “core” basis, which excludes volatile food and energy components, inflation is expected to have risen by 4% on an annual basis; in line with October. Monthly core prices are expected to have risen 0.3%, slightly exceeding the 0.2% increase seen in October.

While inflation remains significantly higher than the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, markets are not expecting the central bank to raise interest rates at its upcoming policy meeting. Fed governor Christopher Waller commented last month that he’s “increasingly confident” that interest rates are at the required level to fight off inflation.

The post November Consumer Price Index Expected to Show Cooling Inflation appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

Futures listed on the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 remained stationary, while those on the Nasdaq 100 slipped 0.1% lower. Beyond the Fed’s upcoming interest rate decision, Tuesday’s CPI data is expected to give a hint at the direction that stocks could take going into 2024.

Jobs data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday indicated that the Federal Reserve could loosen its monetary policy given that the labor market has been loosening and inflation data continues to cool. Still, the Fed is expected to institute a pause, with rate cuts only coming into play early next year.

The post Stocks Remain Stagnant Ahead of Crucial Inflation Data appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

In terms of long-run inflation, consumers expect a 2.8% reading, down from 3.2% during the previous report which was the highest level since 2011. The overall consumer sentiment index gained 13% in December; a reversal of four straight months of decline. The index was at 69.4, surpassing November’s 59.8 reading.

While the Consumer Price Index showed that consumer prices remained unchanged from October, the Personal Consumer Expenditures (PCE) index, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, showed prices increasing at their slowest pace in over two years. “While the lower inflation readings of the past few months are welcome, that progress must continue if we are to reach our 2% objective,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated in a speech on December 1.

The post Inflation Expectations Sink to Lowest Level in Two Years appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

Both CPI measures beat the expectations of economists polled by Bloomberg, with forecasts being a 0.3% monthly gain and a 3.4% annual rise. While February’s monthly gains fell in line with March’s figures, March’s annual gain exceeded the 3.4% annual rise posted in February.

Looking at “core” inflation, which excludes more volatile food and energy costs, the CPI rose by 0.4% compared to February and 3.8% on a yearly basis. Economists expected a 0.3% monthly gain and a 3.7% year-over-year rise, with actual figures outpacing both. Should inflation continue this upward trend, the Federal Reserve may reconsider its stance on introducing interest rate cuts later in the year.

The post Consumer Price Index Comes in Hotter in March appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

Contracts listed on the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite index rose 0.3% higher, with futures on the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising marginally higher. The 10-year Treasury Yield rose to 4.45%, with 4.5% being viewed as a potential tipping point by some investors as it appears to be on track to return to last year’s highs.

Wednesday’s CPI report is expected to provide a deeper indication of whether the central bank will indeed consider implementing three rate cuts this year as previously mentioned by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Investor anxiety was stoked last Thursday when Minneapolis Fed president Neel Kashkari claimed that the Fed may even forego interest rate cuts entirely this year depending on the trajectory of price pressures.

The post Futures Stall as Markets Await Fresh Inflation Data appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

Despite consumer prices remaining more sticky than expected, analysts expect that the latest CPI reading will not have a major influence on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy and the timing of its prospective interest rate cuts. “Things are really where they should be at this point,” Oppenheimer chief investment strategist John Stoltzfus commented, expressing an indifference toward the rise in consumer prices in February.

Both Stoltzfus and chief economist for Manulife Frances Donald agreed that June appears to be a sound time for the U.S. central bank to introduce interest rate cuts. Still, expectations may be pushed back if economic data continues to show significant price increases.

The post Stubborn CPI Reading Unlikely to Affect Fed Rate Cuts appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

Equities on the benchmark S&P 500 slipped by 0.3%, as did those listed on the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite. Stocks listed on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were also down 0.3%. This comes after tech stocks declined on Friday.

Due on Tuesday, the Consumer Price Index is expected to shed more light on the trajectory of the Federal Reserve’s fiscal policy. Last week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell expressed during his testimony before Congress that the central bank is looking for confident signs that inflation is cooling before introducing the prospect of interest rate cuts.

The post U.S. Stocks Cool Amid Investor Anxiety Over CPI appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

Futures listed on the S&P 500 rose by 0.2% during premarket trading in New York, while those on the Nasdaq 100 advanced by 0.4%. Contracts listed on the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged higher by 0.1%. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 gained 0.1% while the MSCI World index remained relatively stagnant.

The dollar remained steady after its gains in the previous session, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot index remaining unchanged. The euro was also little changed at $1.0702, while the greenback strengthened against the pound, with the British currency slipping 0.3% to $1.2557.

The post Stock Futures Rise Following CPI Inflation Data appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

Markets are shifting their attention to Tuesday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for January, which is expected to provide clues as to the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate policy decision. “The market is still trying to get a sense of how much the Fed can lower interest rates and how quickly, and I think a softer CPI reading next week would certainly go a long way in encouraging the Fed that inflation is under control,” Gennadiy Goldberg, the head of U.S. rates strategy at TD Securities observed.

Given current economic conditions, traders are pricing an 18% chance that the Fed will implement a rate cut in March, down from 64% last month. A 58% chance of a May rate cut has been priced.

The post Bonds Hit Two-Month High Ahead of Inflation Data appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

According to the minutes from the Fed’s latest policy meeting in December, policymakers have acknowledged that interest rates appear to have peaked. Still, they “reaffirmed that it would be appropriate for policy to remain at a restrictive stance for some time until inflation was clearly moving down sustainably”.

The producer price index, set to be released on Friday, is expected to show that inflation, excluding food and energy, is also cooling on an annual basis. Outside of the U.S., investors await UK growth data as well as central bank decisions from South Korea and Peru.

The post Fed Optimism Persists Amid Easing Core Inflation appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

Bank of America has suggested that lower energy prices have helped to limit a rise in headline inflation on an annual basis. The bank expects a 3.5% decline in energy prices on a month-over-month basis; more than the 2.5% drop in October. On a “core” basis, which excludes volatile food and energy components, inflation is expected to have risen by 4% on an annual basis; in line with October. Monthly core prices are expected to have risen 0.3%, slightly exceeding the 0.2% increase seen in October.

While inflation remains significantly higher than the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, markets are not expecting the central bank to raise interest rates at its upcoming policy meeting. Fed governor Christopher Waller commented last month that he’s “increasingly confident” that interest rates are at the required level to fight off inflation.

The post November Consumer Price Index Expected to Show Cooling Inflation appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

Futures listed on the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 remained stationary, while those on the Nasdaq 100 slipped 0.1% lower. Beyond the Fed’s upcoming interest rate decision, Tuesday’s CPI data is expected to give a hint at the direction that stocks could take going into 2024.

Jobs data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday indicated that the Federal Reserve could loosen its monetary policy given that the labor market has been loosening and inflation data continues to cool. Still, the Fed is expected to institute a pause, with rate cuts only coming into play early next year.

The post Stocks Remain Stagnant Ahead of Crucial Inflation Data appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

In terms of long-run inflation, consumers expect a 2.8% reading, down from 3.2% during the previous report which was the highest level since 2011. The overall consumer sentiment index gained 13% in December; a reversal of four straight months of decline. The index was at 69.4, surpassing November’s 59.8 reading.

While the Consumer Price Index showed that consumer prices remained unchanged from October, the Personal Consumer Expenditures (PCE) index, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, showed prices increasing at their slowest pace in over two years. “While the lower inflation readings of the past few months are welcome, that progress must continue if we are to reach our 2% objective,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated in a speech on December 1.

The post Inflation Expectations Sink to Lowest Level in Two Years appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.