Banking giant Goldman Sachs is becoming increasingly pessimistic about the S&P 500’s chances to deliver a successful year. In a note sent to clients, Goldman’s Chief U.S. Equity Strategist David Kostin predicted that the benchmark index will finish the year at 5,700 points.
Kostin initially set a 6,500-point target for the S&P 500 before reducing it to 6,200 points in early March. Now, he believes that the 5,700 points target is more appropriate, taking into consideration the increasing risk of recession as well as uncertainty caused by the changes to tariff policy.
Kostin also noted that the S&P 500 could sink much further in the trend of deteriorating growth outlook and investor confidence persists.
“If the growth outlook and investor confidence deteriorate even further, valuations could decline much more than we forecast,” Kostin wrote. “We continue to recommend investors watch for an improvement in the growth outlook, more asymmetry in market pricing, or depressed positioning before trying to trade a market bottom.”
Kostin’s target put the S&P 500 on track for marginal growth for the rest of 2025. The benchmark index closed at 5,580.94 points on Friday following a 112.37-point or 1.97% drop. It has been 4.90% down since the beginning of the year.