Zillow reported that in 2020, a household with an income of $59,000 per year could afford a home priced at around $240,815. This was less than the median income of $66,000. Now, households need an income of $106,000 in order to afford a median-priced home of $342,941.

“Incomes needed to purchase a home are just much, much higher than the typical household income,” Zillow chief economist Orphe Divounguy observed. Furthermore, mortgage rates for a typical US home have nearly doubled over the past four years.

The post Home Prices Surge By 42% Since 2020 appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

In terms of the settlement, the agents’ commission will no longer be included in listings placed on multiple listing services. This move is expected to push home prices lower, with the abolishment of the current homebuying model where sellers pay both their broker and the buyer’s broker.

With prices expected to fall, TD Cowen Insights reported that real estate commissions are set to fall between 25% and 50% following the decision to bring an end to 6% commissions. Real estate shares slumped following the decision, with Zillow and Compass both sinking by more than 13%. Real estate brokerage Redfin declined by 5%.

The post Ending of Sales Commission Expected to Boost Homebuying appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

This trend is leading to a shortage of home inventory, with the prospect of higher mortgage rates dissuading homeowners from parting ways with their existing homes. According to the National Association of Realtors, existing home sales hit a 30-year low last year, a testament to this “lock-in” effect where homeowners refuse to let go of their cheaper mortgage rates.

Of those born between 1946 and 1964, 40% have remained in their homes for at least 20 years, Redfin found. A further 16% have been in their current homes for 10 to 19 years. According to the study, this appears to be a generational trend rather than a broader market one, with only around 7% of millennials staying in their homes for 10 years or longer.

The post U.S. Homeowners Remain In Homes Longer Than They Did 20 Years Ago appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

Data from December was revised up to a rate of 1.054 million units from an initially reported 1.027 million units. While homebuilding in the Midwest, South, and the West was down, it did rise in the Northeast in January.

Because of a shortage of previously owned homes on the market, homebuilding is expected to rebound in the coming months. There was also a rise in new building permits issued in January, suggesting that a rebound could be underway.

The post U.S. Homebuilding Slumps Amid Cold Weather Conditions appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

Bright MLS chief economist Lisa Sturtevant insisted that while economic conditions remain tight, steep mortgage rates are not solely to blame for slower home sales. “We can’t blame high mortgage rates for the deficit in transactions last year. In reality, demand for housing — and homeownership, in particular — has remained high, despite higher rates,” Sturtevant explained, continuing, “Prospective homebuyers have been shut out of the market by a lack of inventory. If there had been more listings on the market in 2023, we would have had more home sales.”

Prices have also dissuaded buyers, the NAR reported. While the median home price in 1995 was $114,600, the median home price in the current market is around $389,800.

The post Existing Home Sales Fall to Slowest Pace in 30 Years appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

Economists at Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs polled by Bloomberg also reversed the direction of their housing price forecasts as a result of this market unpredictability. According to the latest data from the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller national home price index, home prices have risen 4.8% year over year, thereby making JPMorgan’s James Egan the strategist with the most accurate prediction, forecasting a 4% rise.

“The housing market has proven even more resilient than we had expected,” Goldman Sachs fixed income strategist Vinay Viswanathan reflected. “While we are cognizant of the tailwind from tight housing supply, we expect affordability will likely stay poor, ultimately pushing prices lower in 2023.”

The post Housing Market Proved Unpredictable in 2023 appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

While the recent drop in housing prices is but a small dent in the 20% increase since the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, rising wage growth in the UK is helping to make property more affordable. “Households should be in a better place to capitalize on the improvement in affordability, given the fact we expect real incomes to tick up over the next year or so,” Gabriella Dickens, senior UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics observed.

Oxford Economics projected a 4% drop in UK house prices over the course of 2024, with most strategists expecting a drop between zero to 2%. Wages are forecasted to rise by 7.1% between the fourth quarter of 2022 and 2023 and 4% over the 12 months leading to the fourth quarter of 2024, according to Bloomberg Economics.

The post UK Property on Course for Record Affordability appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

Still, while the decline in mortgage rates is expected to provide some relief to homebuyers, lower rates are expected to push prices higher. “A drop in rates makes it more likely that prices will start heading higher earlier than normal in 2024, and higher prices will erase some of the benefits of lower mortgage rates,” Keith Gumbinger, vice president of HSH.com, observed.

The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates three times throughout 2024. While economists at Realtor.com said they expect rates to average 6.8% for most of the year before declining to 6.5% later in the year, the National Association of Realtors forecasted that rates will average 6.3% in 2024.

The post Mortgage Rate Hit Lowest Level Since May appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

Despite the low likelihood of such a drastic drop next year, experts are pointing to mortgage rates falling below the current average of over 7%. This comes as the Federal Reserve continues to show signs that it will introduce interest rate cuts as early as March 2024. Currently, interest rates are at a 22-year high, with the Fed keeping rate constant over its past two policy meetings.

Still, industry specialists urge homebuyers not to wait until mortgage rates fall below 5% before purchasing a property. “Regardless of what the Fed does with respect to rates, I would never advise prospective homebuyers to try to time the market or trajectory of mortgage rates,” Bob Driscoll, SVP and director of residential lending at Rockland Trust Bank explained. He advised prospective homebuyers to focus on factors in their control such as timing the transaction right according to their own personal financial position.

The post Mortgage Rates Could Drop to 5% in 2024 appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

“With mortgage rates down roughly 50 basis points over the past month, builders are reporting an uptick in traffic as some prospective buyers who previously felt priced out of the market are taking a second look,” NAHB Chairwoman Alicia Huey observed, reflecting on the easing market conditions.

In October, the average rate for the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage surged to a two-decade high of 7.9% before retreating to 7.07% last week, data from the Mortgage Bankers Association showed. This is another sign of easing inflation, with investors becoming more confident that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates early in 2024.

The post U.S. Homebuilders More Confident as Interest Rates Ease appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

Zillow reported that in 2020, a household with an income of $59,000 per year could afford a home priced at around $240,815. This was less than the median income of $66,000. Now, households need an income of $106,000 in order to afford a median-priced home of $342,941.

“Incomes needed to purchase a home are just much, much higher than the typical household income,” Zillow chief economist Orphe Divounguy observed. Furthermore, mortgage rates for a typical US home have nearly doubled over the past four years.

The post Home Prices Surge By 42% Since 2020 appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

In terms of the settlement, the agents’ commission will no longer be included in listings placed on multiple listing services. This move is expected to push home prices lower, with the abolishment of the current homebuying model where sellers pay both their broker and the buyer’s broker.

With prices expected to fall, TD Cowen Insights reported that real estate commissions are set to fall between 25% and 50% following the decision to bring an end to 6% commissions. Real estate shares slumped following the decision, with Zillow and Compass both sinking by more than 13%. Real estate brokerage Redfin declined by 5%.

The post Ending of Sales Commission Expected to Boost Homebuying appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

This trend is leading to a shortage of home inventory, with the prospect of higher mortgage rates dissuading homeowners from parting ways with their existing homes. According to the National Association of Realtors, existing home sales hit a 30-year low last year, a testament to this “lock-in” effect where homeowners refuse to let go of their cheaper mortgage rates.

Of those born between 1946 and 1964, 40% have remained in their homes for at least 20 years, Redfin found. A further 16% have been in their current homes for 10 to 19 years. According to the study, this appears to be a generational trend rather than a broader market one, with only around 7% of millennials staying in their homes for 10 years or longer.

The post U.S. Homeowners Remain In Homes Longer Than They Did 20 Years Ago appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

Data from December was revised up to a rate of 1.054 million units from an initially reported 1.027 million units. While homebuilding in the Midwest, South, and the West was down, it did rise in the Northeast in January.

Because of a shortage of previously owned homes on the market, homebuilding is expected to rebound in the coming months. There was also a rise in new building permits issued in January, suggesting that a rebound could be underway.

The post U.S. Homebuilding Slumps Amid Cold Weather Conditions appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

Bright MLS chief economist Lisa Sturtevant insisted that while economic conditions remain tight, steep mortgage rates are not solely to blame for slower home sales. “We can’t blame high mortgage rates for the deficit in transactions last year. In reality, demand for housing — and homeownership, in particular — has remained high, despite higher rates,” Sturtevant explained, continuing, “Prospective homebuyers have been shut out of the market by a lack of inventory. If there had been more listings on the market in 2023, we would have had more home sales.”

Prices have also dissuaded buyers, the NAR reported. While the median home price in 1995 was $114,600, the median home price in the current market is around $389,800.

The post Existing Home Sales Fall to Slowest Pace in 30 Years appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

Economists at Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs polled by Bloomberg also reversed the direction of their housing price forecasts as a result of this market unpredictability. According to the latest data from the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller national home price index, home prices have risen 4.8% year over year, thereby making JPMorgan’s James Egan the strategist with the most accurate prediction, forecasting a 4% rise.

“The housing market has proven even more resilient than we had expected,” Goldman Sachs fixed income strategist Vinay Viswanathan reflected. “While we are cognizant of the tailwind from tight housing supply, we expect affordability will likely stay poor, ultimately pushing prices lower in 2023.”

The post Housing Market Proved Unpredictable in 2023 appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

While the recent drop in housing prices is but a small dent in the 20% increase since the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, rising wage growth in the UK is helping to make property more affordable. “Households should be in a better place to capitalize on the improvement in affordability, given the fact we expect real incomes to tick up over the next year or so,” Gabriella Dickens, senior UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics observed.

Oxford Economics projected a 4% drop in UK house prices over the course of 2024, with most strategists expecting a drop between zero to 2%. Wages are forecasted to rise by 7.1% between the fourth quarter of 2022 and 2023 and 4% over the 12 months leading to the fourth quarter of 2024, according to Bloomberg Economics.

The post UK Property on Course for Record Affordability appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

Still, while the decline in mortgage rates is expected to provide some relief to homebuyers, lower rates are expected to push prices higher. “A drop in rates makes it more likely that prices will start heading higher earlier than normal in 2024, and higher prices will erase some of the benefits of lower mortgage rates,” Keith Gumbinger, vice president of HSH.com, observed.

The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates three times throughout 2024. While economists at Realtor.com said they expect rates to average 6.8% for most of the year before declining to 6.5% later in the year, the National Association of Realtors forecasted that rates will average 6.3% in 2024.

The post Mortgage Rate Hit Lowest Level Since May appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

Despite the low likelihood of such a drastic drop next year, experts are pointing to mortgage rates falling below the current average of over 7%. This comes as the Federal Reserve continues to show signs that it will introduce interest rate cuts as early as March 2024. Currently, interest rates are at a 22-year high, with the Fed keeping rate constant over its past two policy meetings.

Still, industry specialists urge homebuyers not to wait until mortgage rates fall below 5% before purchasing a property. “Regardless of what the Fed does with respect to rates, I would never advise prospective homebuyers to try to time the market or trajectory of mortgage rates,” Bob Driscoll, SVP and director of residential lending at Rockland Trust Bank explained. He advised prospective homebuyers to focus on factors in their control such as timing the transaction right according to their own personal financial position.

The post Mortgage Rates Could Drop to 5% in 2024 appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.

“With mortgage rates down roughly 50 basis points over the past month, builders are reporting an uptick in traffic as some prospective buyers who previously felt priced out of the market are taking a second look,” NAHB Chairwoman Alicia Huey observed, reflecting on the easing market conditions.

In October, the average rate for the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage surged to a two-decade high of 7.9% before retreating to 7.07% last week, data from the Mortgage Bankers Association showed. This is another sign of easing inflation, with investors becoming more confident that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates early in 2024.

The post U.S. Homebuilders More Confident as Interest Rates Ease appeared first on theprimarymarket.com.